new

Get trending papers in your email inbox!

Subscribe

Daily Papers

byAK and the research community

May 13

Prediction Bottlenecks Don't Discover Causal Structure (But Here's What They Actually Do)

A Mamba state-space model trained only for next-step prediction appears to recover Granger-causal structure through a simple readout S = |W_{out} W_{in}|, with early experiments suggesting the phenomenon generalized across architectures and benefited from interventional data at p < 10^{-5}. We package the protocol used to test that claim -- standardized synthetic generators (VAR/Lorenz/CauseMe-style), three intervention semantics (do(X=c), soft-noise, random-forcing), edge-provenance cards on three real datasets, and size-matched control arms -- as a reusable falsification benchmark, and walk the claim through it in five stages. The method-level claim does not survive: (i) a plain linear bottleneck does as well or better; (ii) tuned Lasso beats the bottleneck on synthetic CauseMe-style benchmarks, and on Lorenz-96 (the only real benchmark with unambiguous ground truth) classical PCMCI and Granger lead a tight cluster in which the bottleneck trails; (iii) the headline intervention advantage is roughly 60% a sample-size confound, and the residual disappears under standard do(X=c) interventions, surviving only under a non-standard random-forcing scheme; (iv) even that residual reproduces, with a larger effect, in classical bivariate Granger -- the effect is method-agnostic. What survives is a narrow characterization result; the benchmark is the lasting artifact, and each stage above is one of its control arms.

  • 4 authors
·
May 8 1

Next Generation Multitarget Trackers: Random Finite Set Methods vs Transformer-based Deep Learning

Multitarget Tracking (MTT) is the problem of tracking the states of an unknown number of objects using noisy measurements, with important applications to autonomous driving, surveillance, robotics, and others. In the model-based Bayesian setting, there are conjugate priors that enable us to express the multi-object posterior in closed form, which could theoretically provide Bayes-optimal estimates. However, the posterior involves a super-exponential growth of the number of hypotheses over time, forcing state-of-the-art methods to resort to approximations for remaining tractable, which can impact their performance in complex scenarios. Model-free methods based on deep-learning provide an attractive alternative, as they can, in principle, learn the optimal filter from data, but to the best of our knowledge were never compared to current state-of-the-art Bayesian filters, specially not in contexts where accurate models are available. In this paper, we propose a high-performing deep-learning method for MTT based on the Transformer architecture and compare it to two state-of-the-art Bayesian filters, in a setting where we assume the correct model is provided. Although this gives an edge to the model-based filters, it also allows us to generate unlimited training data. We show that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art Bayesian filters in complex scenarios, while matching their performance in simpler cases, which validates the applicability of deep-learning also in the model-based regime. The code for all our implementations is made available at https://github.com/JulianoLagana/MT3 .

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 1, 2021

Improving Synthetic Image Detection Towards Generalization: An Image Transformation Perspective

With recent generative models facilitating photo-realistic image synthesis, the proliferation of synthetic images has also engendered certain negative impacts on social platforms, thereby raising an urgent imperative to develop effective detectors. Current synthetic image detection (SID) pipelines are primarily dedicated to crafting universal artifact features, accompanied by an oversight about SID training paradigm. In this paper, we re-examine the SID problem and identify two prevalent biases in current training paradigms, i.e., weakened artifact features and overfitted artifact features. Meanwhile, we discover that the imaging mechanism of synthetic images contributes to heightened local correlations among pixels, suggesting that detectors should be equipped with local awareness. In this light, we propose SAFE, a lightweight and effective detector with three simple image transformations. Firstly, for weakened artifact features, we substitute the down-sampling operator with the crop operator in image pre-processing to help circumvent artifact distortion. Secondly, for overfitted artifact features, we include ColorJitter and RandomRotation as additional data augmentations, to help alleviate irrelevant biases from color discrepancies and semantic differences in limited training samples. Thirdly, for local awareness, we propose a patch-based random masking strategy tailored for SID, forcing the detector to focus on local regions at training. Comparative experiments are conducted on an open-world dataset, comprising synthetic images generated by 26 distinct generative models. Our pipeline achieves a new state-of-the-art performance, with remarkable improvements of 4.5% in accuracy and 2.9% in average precision against existing methods. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Ouxiang-Li/SAFE.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 13, 2024

Learning to Collaborate: An Orchestrated-Decentralized Framework for Peer-to-Peer LLM Federation

Fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs) for specialized domains is constrained by a fundamental challenge: the need for diverse, cross-organizational data conflicts with the principles of data privacy and sovereignty. While Federated Learning (FL) provides a framework for collaboration without raw data exchange, its classic centralized form introduces a single point of failure and remains vulnerable to model inversion attacks. Decentralized FL (DFL) mitigates this risk by removing the central aggregator but typically relies on inefficient, random peer-to-peer (P2P) pairings, forming a collaboration graph that is blind to agent heterogeneity and risks negative transfer. This paper introduces KNEXA-FL, a novel framework for orchestrated decentralization that resolves this trade-off. KNEXA-FL employs a non-aggregating Central Profiler/Matchmaker (CPM) that formulates P2P collaboration as a contextual bandit problem, using a LinUCB algorithm on abstract agent profiles to learn an optimal matchmaking policy. It orchestrates direct knowledge exchange between heterogeneous, PEFT-based LLM agents via secure distillation, without ever accessing the models themselves. Our comprehensive experiments on a challenging code generation task show that KNEXA-FL yields substantial gains, improving Pass@1 by approx. 50% relative to random P2P collaboration. Critically, our orchestrated approach demonstrates stable convergence, in stark contrast to a powerful centralized distillation baseline which suffers from catastrophic performance collapse. Our work establishes adaptive, learning-based orchestration as a foundational principle for building robust and effective decentralized AI ecosystems.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 22