Daily Papers

Conformal prediction(CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We demonstrate that the interval length might be deceptively improved through a counter-intuitive approach termed Prejudicial Trick(PT), while the coverage remains valid. Specifically, for any given test sample, PT probabilistically returns an interval, which is either null or constructed using an adjusted confidence level, thereby preserving marginal coverage. While PT potentially yields a deceptively lower interval length, it introduces practical vulnerabilities: the same input can yield completely different prediction intervals across repeated runs of the algorithm. We formally derive the conditions under which PT achieves these misleading improvements and provide extensive empirical evidence across various regression and classification tasks. Furthermore, we introduce a new metric interval stability which helps detect whether a new CP method implicitly improves the length based on such PT-like techniques. Code is available at https://github.com/benben-cd/PT-Conformal-Prediction.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions, important questions remain on the reliability and trustworthiness of these sampling procedures for their responsible use in critical scenarios. Conformal prediction is a modern tool to construct finite-sample, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees for any black-box predictor. In this work, we focus on image-to-image regression tasks and we present a generalization of the Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) procedure, that we term K-RCPS, which allows to (i) provide entrywise calibrated intervals for future samples of any diffusion model, and (ii) control a certain notion of risk with respect to a ground truth image with minimal mean interval length. Differently from existing conformal risk control procedures, ours relies on a novel convex optimization approach that allows for multidimensional risk control while provably minimizing the mean interval length. We illustrate our approach on two real-world image denoising problems: on natural images of faces as well as on computed tomography (CT) scans of the abdomen, demonstrating state of the art performance.

According to the forgetting curve theory, we can enhance memory retention by learning extensive data and taking adequate rest. This means that in order to effectively retain new knowledge, it is essential to learn it thoroughly and ensure sufficient rest so that our brain can memorize without forgetting. The main takeaway from this theory is that learning extensive data at once necessitates sufficient rest before learning the same data again. This aspect of human long-term memory retention can be effectively utilized to address the continual learning of neural networks. Retaining new knowledge for a long period of time without catastrophic forgetting is the critical problem of continual learning. Therefore, based on Ebbinghaus' theory, we introduce the view-batch model that adjusts the learning schedules to optimize the recall interval between retraining the same samples. The proposed view-batch model allows the network to get enough rest to learn extensive knowledge from the same samples with a recall interval of sufficient length. To this end, we specifically present two approaches: 1) a replay method that guarantees the optimal recall interval, and 2) a self-supervised learning that acquires extensive knowledge from a single training sample at a time. We empirically show that these approaches of our method are aligned with the forgetting curve theory, which can enhance long-term memory. In our experiments, we also demonstrate that our method significantly improves many state-of-the-art continual learning methods in various protocols and scenarios. We open-source this project at https://github.com/hankyul2/ViewBatchModel.

Transformer-based Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle to process inputs exceeding their training context window, with performance degrading due to positional out-of-distribution (O.O.D.) that disrupt attention computations. Existing solutions, fine-tuning and training-free methods, are limited by computational inefficiency, attention logit outliers or loss of local positional information. To address this, we propose Greedy Attention Logit Interpolation (GALI), a training-free length extrapolation method that maximizes the utilization of pretrained positional intervals while avoiding attention logit outliers through attention logit interpolation. The result demonstrates that GALI consistently outperforms state-of-the-art training-free methods. Our findings reveal that LLMs interpret positional intervals unevenly within their training context window, suggesting that extrapolating within a smaller positional interval range yields superior results-even for short-context tasks. GALI represents a significant step toward resolving the positional O.O.D. challenge, enabling more reliable long-text understanding in LLMs. Our implementation of GALI, along with the experiments from our paper, is open-sourced at https://github.com/AcademyCityL/GALI.

The present few-shot temporal action localization model can't handle the situation where videos contain multiple action instances. So the purpose of this paper is to achieve manifold action instances localization in a lengthy untrimmed query video using limited trimmed support videos. To address this challenging problem effectively, we proposed a novel solution involving a spatial-channel relation transformer with probability learning and cluster refinement. This method can accurately identify the start and end boundaries of actions in the query video, utilizing only a limited number of labeled videos. Our proposed method is adept at capturing both temporal and spatial contexts to effectively classify and precisely locate actions in videos, enabling a more comprehensive utilization of these crucial details. The selective cosine penalization algorithm is designed to suppress temporal boundaries that do not include action scene switches. The probability learning combined with the label generation algorithm alleviates the problem of action duration diversity and enhances the model's ability to handle fuzzy action boundaries. The interval cluster can help us get the final results with multiple instances situations in few-shot temporal action localization. Our model achieves competitive performance through meticulous experimentation utilizing the benchmark datasets ActivityNet1.3 and THUMOS14. Our code is readily available at https://github.com/ycwfs/FMI-TAL.

An agent holds a position in a perpetual contract with payoff function ψ and attempts to liquidate the position while managing transaction costs, inventory risk, and funding rate payments. By solving the agent's stochastic control problem we obtain a closed-form expression for the optimal trading strategy when the payoff function is given by ψ(s) = s. When the payoff function is non-linear we provide approximations to the optimal strategy which apply when the funding rate parameter is small or when the length of the trading interval is small. We further prove that when ψ is non-linear, the short time approximation can be written in terms of the closed-form trading strategy corresponding to the case of the identity payoff function.

This paper presents a computationally feasible method to compute rigorous bounds on the interval-generalisation of regression analysis to account for epistemic uncertainty in the output variables. The new iterative method uses machine learning algorithms to fit an imprecise regression model to data that consist of intervals rather than point values. The method is based on a single-layer interval neural network which can be trained to produce an interval prediction. It seeks parameters for the optimal model that minimizes the mean squared error between the actual and predicted interval values of the dependent variable using a first-order gradient-based optimization and interval analysis computations to model the measurement imprecision of the data. An additional extension to a multi-layer neural network is also presented. We consider the explanatory variables to be precise point values, but the measured dependent values are characterized by interval bounds without any probabilistic information. The proposed iterative method estimates the lower and upper bounds of the expectation region, which is an envelope of all possible precise regression lines obtained by ordinary regression analysis based on any configuration of real-valued points from the respective y-intervals and their x-values.

Great successes have been reported using Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) to align large language models. Open-source preference datasets and reward models have enabled wider experimentation beyond generic chat settings, particularly to make systems more "helpful" for tasks like web question answering, summarization, and multi-turn dialogue. When optimizing for helpfulness, RLHF has been consistently observed to drive models to produce longer outputs. This paper demonstrates that optimizing for response length is a significant factor behind RLHF's reported improvements in these settings. First, we study the relationship between reward and length for reward models trained on three open-source preference datasets for helpfulness. Here, length correlates strongly with reward, and improvements in reward score are driven in large part by shifting the distribution over output lengths. We then explore interventions during both RL and reward model learning to see if we can achieve the same downstream improvements as RLHF without increasing length. While our interventions mitigate length increases, they aren't uniformly effective across settings. Furthermore, we find that even running RLHF with a reward based solely on length can reproduce most of the downstream improvements over the initial policy model, showing that reward models in these settings have a long way to go.

Reinforcement learning substantially improves reasoning in large language models, but it also tends to lengthen chain of thought outputs and increase computational cost during both training and inference. Though length control methods have been proposed, it remains unclear what the optimal output length is for balancing efficiency and performance. In this work, we compare several length control methods on two models, Qwen3-1.7B Base and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B. Our results indicate that length penalties may hinder reasoning acquisition, while properly tuned length control can improve efficiency for models with strong prior reasoning. By extending prior work to RL trained policies, we identify two failure modes, 1) long outputs increase dispersion, and 2) short outputs lead to under-thinking.

Recently, a new Continual Learning (CL) paradigm was presented to control catastrophic forgetting, called Interval Continual Learning (InterContiNet), which relies on enforcing interval constraints on the neural network parameter space. Unfortunately, InterContiNet training is challenging due to the high dimensionality of the weight space, making intervals difficult to manage. To address this issue, we introduce HyperInterval, a technique that employs interval arithmetic within the embedding space and utilizes a hypernetwork to map these intervals to the target network parameter space. We train interval embeddings for consecutive tasks and train a hypernetwork to transform these embeddings into weights of the target network. An embedding for a given task is trained along with the hypernetwork, preserving the response of the target network for the previous task embeddings. Interval arithmetic works with a more manageable, lower-dimensional embedding space rather than directly preparing intervals in a high-dimensional weight space. Our model allows faster and more efficient training. Furthermore, HyperInterval maintains the guarantee of not forgetting. At the end of training, we can choose one universal embedding to produce a single network dedicated to all tasks. In such a framework, hypernetwork is used only for training and can be seen as a meta-trainer. HyperInterval obtains significantly better results than InterContiNet and gives SOTA results on several benchmarks.

The measurement of time is central to intelligent behavior. We know that both animals and artificial agents can successfully use temporal dependencies to select actions. In artificial agents, little work has directly addressed (1) which architectural components are necessary for successful development of this ability, (2) how this timing ability comes to be represented in the units and actions of the agent, and (3) whether the resulting behavior of the system converges on solutions similar to those of biology. Here we studied interval timing abilities in deep reinforcement learning agents trained end-to-end on an interval reproduction paradigm inspired by experimental literature on mechanisms of timing. We characterize the strategies developed by recurrent and feedforward agents, which both succeed at temporal reproduction using distinct mechanisms, some of which bear specific and intriguing similarities to biological systems. These findings advance our understanding of how agents come to represent time, and they highlight the value of experimentally inspired approaches to characterizing agent abilities.

We extend the context length of Llama-3-8B-Instruct from 8K to 80K via QLoRA fine-tuning. The entire training cycle is super efficient, which takes 8 hours on one 8xA800 (80G) GPU machine. The resulted model exhibits superior performances across a broad range of evaluation tasks, such as NIHS, topic retrieval, and long-context language understanding; meanwhile, it also well preserves the original capability over short contexts. The dramatic context extension is mainly attributed to merely 3.5K synthetic training samples generated by GPT-4 , which indicates the LLMs' inherent (yet largely underestimated) potential to extend its original context length. In fact, the context length could be extended far beyond 80K with more computation resources. Therefore, the team will publicly release the entire resources (including data, model, data generation pipeline, training code) so as to facilitate the future research from the community: https://github.com/FlagOpen/FlagEmbedding.

We address the problem of determining the Hausdorff dimension of sets consisting of complex irrationals whose complex continued fraction digits satisfy prescribed restrictions and growth conditions. For the Hurwitz continued fraction, we confirm Hirst's conjecture, as a complex analogue of the result of Wang and Wu [Bull. Lond. Math. Soc. {\bf 40} (2008), no. 1, 18--22] for the regular continued fraction. We also prove a complex analogue of the second-named author's result on the Hausdorff dimension of sets with restricted slowly growing digits [Proc. Amer. Math. Soc. {\bf 151} (2023), no. 9, 3645--3653]. To these ends, we exploit an infinite conformal iterated function system associated with the Hurwitz continued fraction.

This paper explores the impact of extending input lengths on the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). Despite LLMs advancements in recent times, their performance consistency across different input lengths is not well understood. We investigate this aspect by introducing a novel QA reasoning framework, specifically designed to assess the impact of input length. We isolate the effect of input length using multiple versions of the same sample, each being extended with padding of different lengths, types and locations. Our findings show a notable degradation in LLMs' reasoning performance at much shorter input lengths than their technical maximum. We show that the degradation trend appears in every version of our dataset, although at different intensities. Additionally, our study reveals that traditional perplexity metrics do not correlate with performance of LLMs' in long input reasoning tasks. We analyse our results and identify failure modes that can serve as useful guides for future research, potentially informing strategies to address the limitations observed in LLMs.

Asymmetrical distance structures (quasimetrics) are ubiquitous in our lives and are gaining more attention in machine learning applications. Imposing such quasimetric structures in model representations has been shown to improve many tasks, including reinforcement learning (RL) and causal relation learning. In this work, we present four desirable properties in such quasimetric models, and show how prior works fail at them. We propose Interval Quasimetric Embedding (IQE), which is designed to satisfy all four criteria. On three quasimetric learning experiments, IQEs show strong approximation and generalization abilities, leading to better performance and improved efficiency over prior methods. Project Page: https://www.tongzhouwang.info/interval_quasimetric_embedding Quasimetric Learning Code Package: https://www.github.com/quasimetric-learning/torch-quasimetric

Few-shot learning aims to transfer the knowledge acquired from training on a diverse set of tasks to unseen tasks from the same task distribution with a limited amount of labeled data. The underlying requirement for effective few-shot generalization is to learn a good representation of the task manifold. This becomes more difficult when only a limited number of tasks are available for training. In such a few-task few-shot setting, it is beneficial to explicitly preserve the local neighborhoods from the task manifold and exploit this to generate artificial tasks for training. To this end, we introduce the notion of interval bounds from the provably robust training literature to few-shot learning. The interval bounds are used to characterize neighborhoods around the training tasks. These neighborhoods can then be preserved by minimizing the distance between a task and its respective bounds. We then use a novel strategy to artificially form new tasks for training by interpolating between the available tasks and their respective interval bounds. We apply our framework to both model-agnostic meta-learning as well as prototype-based metric-learning paradigms. The efficacy of our proposed approach is evident from the improved performance on several datasets from diverse domains compared to current methods.

To enable building and testing models on long-document comprehension, we introduce QuALITY, a multiple-choice QA dataset with context passages in English that have an average length of about 5,000 tokens, much longer than typical current models can process. Unlike in prior work with passages, our questions are written and validated by contributors who have read the entire passage, rather than relying on summaries or excerpts. In addition, only half of the questions are answerable by annotators working under tight time constraints, indicating that skimming and simple search are not enough to consistently perform well. Our baseline models perform poorly on this task (55.4%) and significantly lag behind human performance (93.5%).

Humans naturally share information with those they are connected to, and video has become one of the dominant mediums for communication and expression on the Internet. To support the creation of high-quality large-scale video content, a modern pipeline requires a comprehensive understanding of both the raw input materials (e.g., the unedited footage captured by cameras) and the editing components (e.g., visual effects). In video editing scenarios, models must process multiple modalities (e.g., vision, audio, text) with strong background knowledge and handle flexible input lengths (e.g., hour-long raw videos), which poses significant challenges for traditional models. In this report, we introduce Vidi, a family of Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) for a wide range of video understand editing scenarios. The first release focuses on temporal retrieval, i.e., identifying the time ranges within the input videos corresponding to a given text query, which plays a critical role in intelligent editing. The model is capable of processing hour-long videos with strong temporal understanding capability, e.g., retrieve time ranges for certain queries. To support a comprehensive evaluation in real-world scenarios, we also present the VUE-TR benchmark, which introduces five key advancements. 1) Video duration: significantly longer than existing temporal retrival datasets, 2) Audio support: includes audio-based queries, 3) Query format: diverse query lengths/formats, 4) Annotation quality: ground-truth time ranges are manually annotated. 5) Evaluation metric: a refined IoU metric to support evaluation over multiple time ranges. Remarkably, Vidi significantly outperforms leading proprietary models, e.g., GPT-4o and Gemini, on the temporal retrieval task, indicating its superiority in video editing scenarios.

Algorithms such as Differentially Private SGD enable training machine learning models with formal privacy guarantees. However, there is a discrepancy between the protection that such algorithms guarantee in theory and the protection they afford in practice. An emerging strand of work empirically estimates the protection afforded by differentially private training as a confidence interval for the privacy budget varepsilon spent on training a model. Existing approaches derive confidence intervals for varepsilon from confidence intervals for the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. Unfortunately, obtaining narrow high-confidence intervals for epsilon using this method requires an impractically large sample size and training as many models as samples. We propose a novel Bayesian method that greatly reduces sample size, and adapt and validate a heuristic to draw more than one sample per trained model. Our Bayesian method exploits the hypothesis testing interpretation of differential privacy to obtain a posterior for varepsilon (not just a confidence interval) from the joint posterior of the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. For the same sample size and confidence, we derive confidence intervals for varepsilon around 40% narrower than prior work. The heuristic, which we adapt from label-only DP, can be used to further reduce the number of trained models needed to get enough samples by up to 2 orders of magnitude.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

Assessing the complexity of functions computed by a neural network helps us understand how the network will learn and generalize. One natural measure of complexity is how the network distorts length - if the network takes a unit-length curve as input, what is the length of the resulting curve of outputs? It has been widely believed that this length grows exponentially in network depth. We prove that in fact this is not the case: the expected length distortion does not grow with depth, and indeed shrinks slightly, for ReLU networks with standard random initialization. We also generalize this result by proving upper bounds both for higher moments of the length distortion and for the distortion of higher-dimensional volumes. These theoretical results are corroborated by our experiments.

The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) represents a notable breakthrough in Natural Language Processing (NLP), contributing to substantial progress in both text comprehension and generation. However, amidst these advancements, it is noteworthy that LLMs often face a limitation in terms of context length extrapolation. Understanding and extending the context length for LLMs is crucial in enhancing their performance across various NLP applications. In this survey paper, we delve into the multifaceted aspects of exploring why it is essential, and the potential transformations that superior techniques could bring to NLP applications. We study the inherent challenges associated with extending context length and present an organized overview of the existing strategies employed by researchers. Additionally, we discuss the intricacies of evaluating context extension techniques and highlight the open challenges that researchers face in this domain. Furthermore, we explore whether there is a consensus within the research community regarding evaluation standards and identify areas where further agreement is needed. This comprehensive survey aims to serve as a valuable resource for researchers, guiding them through the nuances of context length extension techniques and fostering discussions on future advancements in this evolving field.

Stochastic rounding (SR) is a probabilistic method used to round numbers to floating-point and fixed-point representations. In length n summation, the worst-case error of SR grows as n with high probability, unlike for standard modes, like round-to-nearest (RN), which grows as n. For this reason, the former is increasingly employed in large-scale, low-precision computations as an RN alternative. Additionally, SR alleviates stagnation, whereby relatively small summands are completely rounded off and do not contribute to the sum. We provide an update to [Croci et al., Roy. Soc. Open Sci. 9.3 (2022), pp. 1-25], a survey which discusses the development and use of SR between 1949 and 2022, citing over 100 references. Since then, there has been a surge of new research, and this update covers almost four years of further progress in applying, analysing, and implementing SR. Our main focus is limited-precision stochastic rounding, a new variant that fixes the precision of the random numbers used. We provide insights into industrial and numerical analysis activities surrounding SR, highlighting the next possible steps in making this rounding mode more widely available in hardware.