Daily Papers

Backtests of cryptocurrency perpetual futures are fragile when they ignore microstructure frictions and reuse evaluation windows during parameter search. We study four liquid perpetuals (BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, SOL/USDT, AVAX/USDT) and quantify how execution delay, funding, fees, and slippage can inflate reported performance. We introduce AutoQuant, an execution-centric, alpha-agnostic framework for auditable strategy configuration selection. AutoQuant encodes strict T+1 execution semantics and no-look-ahead funding alignment, runs Bayesian optimization under realistic costs, and applies a two-stage double-screening protocol across held-out rolling windows and a cost-sensitivity grid. We show that fee-only and zero-cost backtests can materially overestimate annualized returns relative to a fully costed configuration, and that double screening tends to reduce drawdowns under the same strict semantics even when returns are not higher. A CSCV/PBO diagnostic indicates substantial residual overfitting risk, motivating AutoQuant as validation and governance infrastructure rather than a claim of persistent alpha. Returns are reported for small-account simulations with linear trading costs and without market impact or capacity modeling.

Conventional medical cancer screening methods are costly, labor-intensive, and extremely difficult to scale. Although AI can improve cancer detection, most systems rely on complex or specialized medical data, making them impractical for large-scale screening. We introduce Can-SAVE, a lightweight AI system that ranks population-wide cancer risks solely based on medical history events. By integrating survival model outputs into a gradient-boosting framework, our approach detects subtle, long-term patient risk patterns - often well before clinical symptoms manifest. Can-SAVE was rigorously evaluated on a real-world dataset of 2.5 million adults spanning five Russian regions, marking the study as one of the largest and most comprehensive deployments of AI-driven cancer risk assessment. In a retrospective oncologist-supervised study over 1.9M patients, Can-SAVE achieves a 4-10x higher detection rate at identical screening volumes and an Average Precision (AP) of 0.228 vs. 0.193 for the best baseline (LoRA-tuned Qwen3-Embeddings via DeepSeek-R1 summarization). In a year-long prospective pilot (426K patients), our method almost doubled the cancer detection rate (+91%) and increased population coverage by 36% over the national screening protocol. The system demonstrates practical scalability: a city-wide population of 1 million patients can be processed in under three hours using standard hardware, enabling seamless clinical integration. This work proves that Can-SAVE achieves nationally significant cancer detection improvements while adhering to real-world public healthcare constraints, offering immediate clinical utility and a replicable framework for population-wide screening. Code for training and feature engineering is available at https://github.com/sb-ai-lab/Can-SAVE.

Breast cancer is a major cause of cancer death among women, emphasising the importance of early detection for improved treatment outcomes and quality of life. Mammography, the primary diagnostic imaging test, poses challenges due to the high variability and patterns in mammograms. Double reading of mammograms is recommended in many screening programs to improve diagnostic accuracy but increases radiologists' workload. Researchers explore Machine Learning models to support expert decision-making. Stand-alone models have shown comparable or superior performance to radiologists, but some studies note decreased sensitivity with multiple datasets, indicating the need for high generalisation and robustness models. This work devises MammoDG, a novel deep-learning framework for generalisable and reliable analysis of cross-domain multi-center mammography data. MammoDG leverages multi-view mammograms and a novel contrastive mechanism to enhance generalisation capabilities. Extensive validation demonstrates MammoDG's superiority, highlighting the critical importance of domain generalisation for trustworthy mammography analysis in imaging protocol variations.

Open-weight bio-foundation models present a dual-use dilemma. While holding great promise for accelerating scientific research and drug development, they could also enable bad actors to develop more deadly bioweapons. To mitigate the risk posed by these models, current approaches focus on filtering biohazardous data during pre-training. However, the effectiveness of such an approach remains unclear, particularly against determined actors who might fine-tune these models for malicious use. To address this gap, we propose BioRiskEval, a framework to evaluate the robustness of procedures that are intended to reduce the dual-use capabilities of bio-foundation models. BioRiskEval assesses models' virus understanding through three lenses, including sequence modeling, mutational effects prediction, and virulence prediction. Our results show that current filtering practices may not be particularly effective: Excluded knowledge can be rapidly recovered in some cases via fine-tuning, and exhibits broader generalizability in sequence modeling. Furthermore, dual-use signals may already reside in the pretrained representations, and can be elicited via simple linear probing. These findings highlight the challenges of data filtering as a standalone procedure, underscoring the need for further research into robust safety and security strategies for open-weight bio-foundation models.

In this paper, we compare and evaluate different testing protocols used for automatic COVID-19 diagnosis from X-Ray images in the recent literature. We show that similar results can be obtained using X-Ray images that do not contain most of the lungs. We are able to remove the lungs from the images by turning to black the center of the X-Ray scan and training our classifiers only on the outer part of the images. Hence, we deduce that several testing protocols for the recognition are not fair and that the neural networks are learning patterns in the dataset that are not correlated to the presence of COVID-19. Finally, we show that creating a fair testing protocol is a challenging task, and we provide a method to measure how fair a specific testing protocol is. In the future research we suggest to check the fairness of a testing protocol using our tools and we encourage researchers to look for better techniques than the ones that we propose.

Self-driving laboratories increasingly rely on low-cost liquid handlers such as the Opentrons OT-2, which ship without the pressure-based aspiration monitoring of Hamilton or Tecan systems and are typically run open-loop. Two failure modes go undetected: protocols that are syntactically valid but violate assay-specific invariants (e.g., tip reuse between a PCR template and a no-template control), and physical execution failures (partial dispense, air bubbles, missing tips) at runtime. We present AEGIS, a two-layer guardian for both. Layer 1 pairs a curated machine-readable assay rule database with an LLM that reasons over OT-2 Python code, reaching an adjusted F1 of 0.97 on a 24-protocol benchmark across five assay families and beating rules-only and LLM-only ablations across five backends; a free open-weight model ties the best proprietary one, so no paid API is required. Layer 2 fits a PCA world model to YOLO-cropped four-frame pipette trajectories; under a leakage-free leave-one-plate-out evaluation it reaches average precision 0.89 and operating-point F1 0.71 (AUROC 0.80), a deployment-faithful number that matches the live demonstration, and we characterize the small-pipette (p20) resolution limit (F1 0.47). A live demonstration on a physical OT-2 (five replicates per condition) catches planted no-tip failures deterministically and partial dispense on coloured dyes, with an always-VLM self-vote gate lifting partial-dispense recall to 5/5; transparent water is a principled limit of any front-view-only monitor, which AEGIS surfaces as low-confidence VLM reasoning rather than a wrong verdict. Cascade triage holds VLM cost near 1.63 per plate versus 10.33 for an always-VLM baseline. AEGIS is open source and, to our knowledge, the first system to unify pre-flight assay-aware validation with runtime visual monitoring for an open-source liquid handler.

Some recent studies have described deep convolutional neural networks to diagnose breast cancer in mammograms with similar or even superior performance to that of human experts. One of the best techniques does two transfer learnings: the first uses a model trained on natural images to create a "patch classifier" that categorizes small subimages; the second uses the patch classifier to scan the whole mammogram and create the "single-view whole-image classifier". We propose to make a third transfer learning to obtain a "two-view classifier" to use the two mammographic views: bilateral craniocaudal and mediolateral oblique. We use EfficientNet as the basis of our model. We "end-to-end" train the entire system using CBIS-DDSM dataset. To ensure statistical robustness, we test our system twice using: (a) 5-fold cross validation; and (b) the original training/test division of the dataset. Our technique reached an AUC of 0.9344 using 5-fold cross validation (accuracy, sensitivity and specificity are 85.13% at the equal error rate point of ROC). Using the original dataset division, our technique achieved an AUC of 0.8483, as far as we know the highest reported AUC for this problem, although the subtle differences in the testing conditions of each work do not allow for an accurate comparison. The inference code and model are available at https://github.com/dpetrini/two-views-classifier

Recent machine learning papers often report 1-2 percentage point improvements from a single run on a benchmark. These gains are highly sensitive to random seeds, data ordering, and implementation details, yet are rarely accompanied by uncertainty estimates or significance tests. It is therefore unclear when a reported +1-2% reflects a real algorithmic advance versus noise. We revisit this problem under realistic compute budgets, where only a few runs are affordable. We propose a simple, PC-friendly evaluation protocol based on paired multi-seed runs, bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals, and a sign-flip permutation test on per-seed deltas. The protocol is intentionally conservative and is meant as a guardrail against over-claiming. We instantiate it on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-10N, and AG News using synthetic no-improvement, small-gain, and medium-gain scenarios. Single runs and unpaired t-tests often suggest significant gains for 0.6-2.0 point improvements, especially on text. With only three seeds, our paired protocol never declares significance in these settings. We argue that such conservative evaluation is a safer default for small gains under tight budgets.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the benchmark for causal inference, yet field implementation can deviate. We here present a remote audit - a design-based, preregistrable diagnostic that uses only pre-treatment satellite imagery to test whether assignment is independent of local conditions. The conditional randomization test of the remote audit evaluates whether treatment assignment is more predictable from pre-treatment satellite features than expected under the experiment's registered mechanism, providing a finite-sample valid, design-based diagnostic that requires no parametric assumptions. The procedure is finite-sample valid, honors blocks and clusters, and controls multiplicity across image models and resolutions via a max-statistic. We illustrate with two RCTs: Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program, where the audit corroborates randomization and flags selection and missing-data risks; and a school-based trial in Bangladesh, where assignment is highly predictable from pre-treatment features relative to the stated design, consistent with independent concerns about irregularities. Remote audits complement balance tests, lower early-stage costs, and enable rapid design checks when baseline surveys are expensive or infeasible.

Context can change whether a request is harmful without changing its topic or surface form. We ask whether residual-stream probes distinguish harmful requests from surface-matched benign controls at a useful operating point. Across three 7-8B model families, an activation sensor blocks 95.5-97.7 percent of judge-classified compliant attacks in a taxonomy-selected set. It also blocks 59.6-68.4 percent of XSTest prompts. A fully disjoint audit reconstructs near-ceiling source-contrast AUROC (0.996-0.999), but fixed transfer to matched pairs is weaker: 0.656-0.819 on the guard-selected Twin-n70 subset and 0.590-0.690 on the full Twin-n163 cohort. We test ten axes on the reference family and seven across all families with leakage, hold-out, and permutation controls. On Twin-n163, no axis evaluated without direct pair-boundary fitting reaches the specified numerical threshold. Requiring persistence on that full cohort was added at analysis time. A separately specified 24B/32B extension gives the same result. Pair-trained classifiers weaken under category and generation-batch hold-out and false-block 79.6-100 percent of XSTest at 95 percent in-corpus TPR. At the tested read points, these activation scores behave as broad-risk detectors rather than standalone context adjudicators.

DNA-synthesis providers screen incoming orders by searching the requested sequence against curated hazard lists. We show that this baseline collapses to a 100% false-flag rate when the hazardous sequence comes from a taxonomic family absent from the reference set: under Conformal Risk Control's certified miss-rate constraint, a low-discrimination signal forces the threshold below the entire test-benign mass. We compose three signals derived from a synthesis order's public annotation: k-mer Jaccard similarity to known toxins, the trimmed-mean score of a five-LLM judge panel, and cosine similarity to clustered embedding centroids. Fused under a monotone logistic aggregator and calibrated by Conformal Risk Control, the resulting screener certifies E[FNR] le α. Across ten leave-one-taxonomic-family-out folds at α=0.05 on UniProt KW-0800 reviewed toxins, the calibrated screener achieves 0% test miss rate on every fold and 0% test false-flag rate on nine of ten folds. The bound's finite-sample slack 1/(n_{cal}+1) caps the certifiable miss rate at 1.77% on our 200-hazard subsample; reaching procurement-grade α=10^{-3} requires an 18times larger calibration set, which the full reviewed UniProt KW-0800 corpus is large enough to deliver. The binding constraint on certifiable DNA-synthesis screening is calibration data, not algorithms. Code: https://github.com/najmulhasan-code/crc-screen

How many experimental studies would have come to different conclusions had they been run on larger samples? I show how to estimate the expected number of statistically significant results that a set of experiments would have reported had their sample sizes all been counterfactually increased. The proposed deconvolution estimator is asymptotically normal and adjusts for publication bias. Unlike related methods, this approach requires no assumptions of any kind about the distribution of true intervention treatment effects and allows for point masses. Simulations find good coverage even when the t-score is only approximately normal. An application to randomized trials (RCTs) published in economics journals finds that doubling every sample would increase the power of t-tests by 7.2 percentage points on average. This effect is smaller than for non-RCTs and comparable to systematic replications in laboratory psychology where previous studies enabled more accurate power calculations. This suggests that RCTs are on average relatively insensitive to sample size increases. Research funders who wish to raise power should generally consider sponsoring better-measured and higher quality experiments -- rather than only larger ones.

This paper introduces a novel double stimulus subjective assessment methodology for the evaluation of high quality images to address the limitations of existing protocols in detecting subtle perceptual differences. The In-place Double Stimulus Quality Scale (IDSQS) allows subjects to alternately view a reference and a distorted image at the same spatial location, facilitating a more intuitive detection of differences in quality, especially at high to visually lossless quality levels. A large-scale crowdsourcing study employing this methodology was conducted, generating a comprehensive public dataset to evaluate perceived image quality across several compression algorithms and distortion levels. An additional contribution is the modeling of quality scores using a Beta distribution, allowing for the assessment of variability and subject consistency. Our findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the IDSQS methodology in achieving high correlation with more precise subjective evaluation benchmarks. The dataset, subjective data, and graphical user interface developed for this study are publicly available at https://github.com/shimamohammadi/IDSQS

We present the Virology Capabilities Test (VCT), a large language model (LLM) benchmark that measures the capability to troubleshoot complex virology laboratory protocols. Constructed from the inputs of dozens of PhD-level expert virologists, VCT consists of 322 multimodal questions covering fundamental, tacit, and visual knowledge that is essential for practical work in virology laboratories. VCT is difficult: expert virologists with access to the internet score an average of 22.1% on questions specifically in their sub-areas of expertise. However, the most performant LLM, OpenAI's o3, reaches 43.8% accuracy, outperforming 94% of expert virologists even within their sub-areas of specialization. The ability to provide expert-level virology troubleshooting is inherently dual-use: it is useful for beneficial research, but it can also be misused. Therefore, the fact that publicly available models outperform virologists on VCT raises pressing governance considerations. We propose that the capability of LLMs to provide expert-level troubleshooting of dual-use virology work should be integrated into existing frameworks for handling dual-use technologies in the life sciences.

Quantized checkpoints are often screened first with quality metrics and only later, if at all, with direct safety tests. This paper audits that shortcut on a matched 51-row matrix spanning 6 models, 4 families, a 7-level GGUF ladder, and AWQ/GPTQ INT4 checkpoints. In this matrix the shortcut fails: all 36 quality-safety pairings split direction across models, and 9 hidden-danger rows plus 1 near-hidden-danger row show quality stable or improved while refusal falls by 12-68 percentage points. Seven of the 11 AWQ/GPTQ rows are hidden-danger. A four-probe mechanistic follow-up over the 17 Hugging Face-backed FP16/AWQ/GPTQ cells does not rescue it: entropy, refusal-direction, and calibration probes are weak or null separators of dangerous rows, and although probe-identified safety-associated neurons absorb 1.39times more quantization error overall (p < 5 times 10^{-7}), the effect is not regime-specific. Claude Sonnet 4 relabels 11,470 items in a predefined stratified set, agrees with the primary gemma3:12b judge on 89.9\% of rows (κ= 0.873, 95\% CI [0.866, 0.881]), and changes 0/10 hidden-danger cells. A calibrated study-internal behavioral screen -- the Refusal Template Stability Index (RTSI), built from four refusal-template drift features and calibrated on this matrix -- routes 10/10 hidden- or near-hidden-danger rows to direct safety testing (Wilson 95\% CI lower bound 0.72) while leaving 23 of 45 non-baseline rows in a low-risk bucket under both in-sample scoring and row-level leave-one-out validation; on the same matrix, the best single-feature baselines (unique-prefix-rate-delta, raw refusal-rate delta) recover 9/10 and 8/10 respectively at matched bucket size, and cross-stack transfer requires recalibration. For the quantized checkpoints, model families, and safety outcomes studied here, retained quality cannot waive direct safety evaluation.

LLM confidence signals are used for abstention, routing, and safety-critical decisions. No standard practice exists for checking whether a confidence signal carries item-level information before building on it. We transfer the validity screening principle from clinical personality assessment (PAI, MMPI-3) as a portable protocol for benchmark-based LLM confidence data. The protocol specifies three core indices (L, Fp, RBS), a structural indicator (TRIN), and an item-sensitivity statistic, computed from a single 2x2 contingency table. A three-tier classification system (Invalid, Indeterminate, Valid) draws on four clinical traditions. Validated on 20 frontier LLMs across 524 items, four models are classified Invalid, two Indeterminate. Valid-profile models show mean r = .18 (15/16 significant). Invalid-profile models show mean r = -.20 (d = 2.48). Cross-benchmark validation on 18 models using MMLU with verbalized confidence and on external data from Yang et al. (2024) confirms the screen transfers across benchmarks and probe formats. All data and code: https://github.com/synthiumjp/validity-scaling-llm

The goal of two-sample tests is to assess whether two samples, S_P sim P^n and S_Q sim Q^m, are drawn from the same distribution. Perhaps intriguingly, one relatively unexplored method to build two-sample tests is the use of binary classifiers. In particular, construct a dataset by pairing the n examples in S_P with a positive label, and by pairing the m examples in S_Q with a negative label. If the null hypothesis "P = Q" is true, then the classification accuracy of a binary classifier on a held-out subset of this dataset should remain near chance-level. As we will show, such Classifier Two-Sample Tests (C2ST) learn a suitable representation of the data on the fly, return test statistics in interpretable units, have a simple null distribution, and their predictive uncertainty allow to interpret where P and Q differ. The goal of this paper is to establish the properties, performance, and uses of C2ST. First, we analyze their main theoretical properties. Second, we compare their performance against a variety of state-of-the-art alternatives. Third, we propose their use to evaluate the sample quality of generative models with intractable likelihoods, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Fourth, we showcase the novel application of GANs together with C2ST for causal discovery.

Recent text-to-video (T2V) technology advancements, as demonstrated by models such as Gen2, Pika, and Sora, have significantly broadened its applicability and popularity. Despite these strides, evaluating these models poses substantial challenges. Primarily, due to the limitations inherent in automatic metrics, manual evaluation is often considered a superior method for assessing T2V generation. However, existing manual evaluation protocols face reproducibility, reliability, and practicality issues. To address these challenges, this paper introduces the Text-to-Video Human Evaluation (T2VHE) protocol, a comprehensive and standardized protocol for T2V models. The T2VHE protocol includes well-defined metrics, thorough annotator training, and an effective dynamic evaluation module. Experimental results demonstrate that this protocol not only ensures high-quality annotations but can also reduce evaluation costs by nearly 50%. We will open-source the entire setup of the T2VHE protocol, including the complete protocol workflow, the dynamic evaluation component details, and the annotation interface code. This will help communities establish more sophisticated human assessment protocols.

Lung nodules can be an alarming precursor to potential lung cancer. Missed nodule detections during chest radiograph analysis remains a common challenge among thoracic radiologists. In this work, we present a multi-task lung nodule detection algorithm for chest radiograph analysis. Unlike past approaches, our algorithm predicts a global-level label indicating nodule presence along with local-level labels predicting nodule locations using a Dual Head Network (DHN). We demonstrate the favorable nodule detection performance that our multi-task formulation yields in comparison to conventional methods. In addition, we introduce a novel Dual Head Augmentation (DHA) strategy tailored for DHN, and we demonstrate its significance in further enhancing global and local nodule predictions.

Visual Inspection with Acetic Acid (VIA) remains the most feasible cervical cancer screening test in resource-constrained settings of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), which are often performed screening camps or primary/community health centers by nurses instead of the preferred but unavailable expert Gynecologist. To address the highly subjective nature of the test, various handheld devices integrating cameras or smartphones have been recently explored to capture cervical images during VIA and aid decision-making via telemedicine or AI models. Most studies proposing AI models retrospectively use a relatively small number of already collected images from specific devices, digital cameras, or smartphones; the challenges and protocol for quality image acquisition during VIA in resource-constrained camp settings, challenges in getting gold standard, data imbalance, etc. are often overlooked. We present a novel approach and describe the end-to-end design process to build a robust smartphone-based AI-assisted system that does not require buying a separate integrated device: the proposed protocol for quality image acquisition in resource-constrained settings, dataset collected from 1,430 women during VIA performed by nurses in screening camps, preprocessing pipeline, and training and evaluation of a deep-learning-based classification model aimed to identify (pre)cancerous lesions. Our work shows that the readily available smartphones and a suitable protocol can capture the cervix images with the required details for the VIA test well; the deep-learning-based classification model provides promising results to assist nurses in VIA screening; and provides a direction for large-scale data collection and validation in resource-constrained settings.

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) consist of many low cost and light sensors dispersed in an area to monitor the physical environment. Event detection in WSN area, especially detection of multi-events at the same time, is an important problem. This article is a new attempt for detection of two simultaneous events based on distributed data processing structure and Bayesian criteria. For accurate detection of two simultaneous events, we proposed new decision rules based on likelihood ratio test and also derived probability of detection error based on Bayesian criteria. In addition to multi-event detection, the proposed method is expanded to a fault-tolerant procedure if there are faults in decision making of sensors. Performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated for detection of events in different circumstances. Results show the effectiveness of the algorithm for fault-tolerant multi-event detection.

Color fundus photography and Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) are the two most cost-effective tools for glaucoma screening. Both two modalities of images have prominent biomarkers to indicate glaucoma suspected. Clinically, it is often recommended to take both of the screenings for a more accurate and reliable diagnosis. However, although numerous algorithms are proposed based on fundus images or OCT volumes in computer-aided diagnosis, there are still few methods leveraging both of the modalities for the glaucoma assessment. Inspired by the success of Retinal Fundus Glaucoma Challenge (REFUGE) we held previously, we set up the Glaucoma grAding from Multi-Modality imAges (GAMMA) Challenge to encourage the development of fundus \& OCT-based glaucoma grading. The primary task of the challenge is to grade glaucoma from both the 2D fundus images and 3D OCT scanning volumes. As part of GAMMA, we have publicly released a glaucoma annotated dataset with both 2D fundus color photography and 3D OCT volumes, which is the first multi-modality dataset for glaucoma grading. In addition, an evaluation framework is also established to evaluate the performance of the submitted methods. During the challenge, 1272 results were submitted, and finally, top-10 teams were selected to the final stage. We analysis their results and summarize their methods in the paper. Since all these teams submitted their source code in the challenge, a detailed ablation study is also conducted to verify the effectiveness of the particular modules proposed. We find many of the proposed techniques are practical for the clinical diagnosis of glaucoma. As the first in-depth study of fundus \& OCT multi-modality glaucoma grading, we believe the GAMMA Challenge will be an essential starting point for future research.