Daily Papers

Diffusion language models (dLLMs) recently emerged as a promising alternative to auto-regressive LLMs. The latest works further extended it to multimodal understanding and generation tasks. In this work, we propose LaViDa-R1, a multimodal, general-purpose reasoning dLLM. Unlike existing works that build reasoning dLLMs through task-specific reinforcement learning, LaViDa-R1 incorporates diverse multimodal understanding and generation tasks in a unified manner. In particular, LaViDa-R1 is built with a novel unified post-training framework that seamlessly integrates supervised finetuning (SFT) and multi-task reinforcement learning (RL). It employs several novel training techniques, including answer-forcing, tree search, and complementary likelihood estimation, to enhance effectiveness and scalability. Extensive experiments demonstrate LaViDa-R1's strong performance on a wide range of multimodal tasks, including visual math reasoning, reason-intensive grounding, and image editing.

Embedding based product recommendations have gained popularity in recent years due to its ability to easily integrate to large-scale systems and allowing nearest neighbor searches in real-time. The bulk of studies in this area has predominantly been focused on similar item recommendations. Research on complementary item recommendations, on the other hand, still remains considerably under-explored. We define similar items as items that are interchangeable in terms of their utility and complementary items as items that serve different purposes, yet are compatible when used with one another. In this paper, we apply a novel approach to finding complementary items by leveraging dual embedding representations for products. We demonstrate that the notion of relatedness discovered in NLP for skip-gram negative sampling (SGNS) models translates effectively to the concept of complementarity when training item representations using co-purchase data. Since sparsity of purchase data is a major challenge in real-world scenarios, we further augment the model using synthetic samples to extend coverage. This allows the model to provide complementary recommendations for items that do not share co-purchase data by leveraging other abundantly available data modalities such as images, text, clicks etc. We establish the effectiveness of our approach in improving both coverage and quality of recommendations on real world data for a major online retail company. We further show the importance of task specific hyperparameter tuning in training SGNS. Our model is effective yet simple to implement, making it a great candidate for generating complementary item recommendations at any e-commerce website.

Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between variational inference (VI) and the learning target. While VI's lower bound to the marginal likelihood is a suitable objective for inferring the approximate posterior, we show that a direct approximation of the marginal likelihood as in Expectation Propagation (EP) is a better learning objective for hyperparameter optimization. We design a hybrid training procedure to bring the best of both worlds: it leverages conjugate-computation VI for inference and uses an EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning. We compare VI, EP, Laplace approximation, and our proposed training procedure and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal across a wide range of data sets.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

Complementary-label learning (CLL) is a weakly-supervised learning paradigm that aims to train a multi-class classifier using only complementary labels, which indicate classes to which an instance does not belong. Despite numerous algorithmic proposals for CLL, their practical applicability remains unverified for two reasons. Firstly, these algorithms often rely on assumptions about the generation of complementary labels, and it is not clear how far the assumptions are from reality. Secondly, their evaluation has been limited to synthetically labeled datasets. To gain insights into the real-world performance of CLL algorithms, we developed a protocol to collect complementary labels from human annotators. Our efforts resulted in the creation of four datasets: CLCIFAR10, CLCIFAR20, CLMicroImageNet10, and CLMicroImageNet20, derived from well-known classification datasets CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and TinyImageNet200. These datasets represent the very first real-world CLL datasets, namely CLImage, which are publicly available at: https://github.com/ntucllab/CLImage\_Dataset. Through extensive benchmark experiments, we discovered a notable decrease in performance when transitioning from synthetically labeled datasets to real-world datasets. We investigated the key factors contributing to the decrease with a thorough dataset-level ablation study. Our analyses highlight annotation noise as the most influential factor in the real-world datasets. In addition, we discover that the biased-nature of human-annotated complementary labels and the difficulty to validate with only complementary labels are two outstanding barriers to practical CLL. These findings suggest that the community focus more research efforts on developing CLL algorithms and validation schemes that are robust to noisy and biased complementary-label distributions.

Self-supervised learning excels at learning representations from large amounts of data. At the same time, generative models offer the complementary property of learning information about the underlying data generation process. In this study, we aim at establishing a principled connection between these two paradigms and highlight the benefits of their complementarity. In particular, we perform an analysis of self-supervised learning objectives, elucidating the underlying probabilistic graphical models and presenting a standardized methodology for their derivation from first principles. The analysis suggests a natural means of integrating self-supervised learning with likelihood-based generative models. We instantiate this concept within the realm of cluster-based self-supervised learning and energy models, introducing a lower bound proven to reliably penalize the most important failure modes and unlocking full unification. Our theoretical findings are substantiated through experiments on synthetic and real-world data, including SVHN, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100, demonstrating that our objective function allows to jointly train a backbone network in a discriminative and generative fashion, consequently outperforming existing self-supervised learning strategies in terms of clustering, generation and out-of-distribution detection performance by a wide margin. We also demonstrate that the solution can be integrated into a neuro-symbolic framework to tackle a simple yet non-trivial instantiation of the symbol grounding problem. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/emsansone/GEDI.

Recommendation systems (RS) aim to provide personalized content, but they face a challenge in unbiased learning due to selection bias, where users only interact with items they prefer. This bias leads to a distorted representation of user preferences, which hinders the accuracy and fairness of recommendations. To address the issue, various methods such as error imputation based, inverse propensity scoring, and doubly robust techniques have been developed. Despite the progress, from the structural causal model perspective, previous debiasing methods in RS assume the independence of the exogenous variables. In this paper, we release this assumption and propose a learning algorithm based on likelihood maximization to learn a prediction model. We first discuss the correlation and difference between unmeasured confounding and our scenario, then we propose a unified method that effectively handles latent exogenous variables. Specifically, our method models the data generation process with latent exogenous variables under mild normality assumptions. We then develop a Monte Carlo algorithm to numerically estimate the likelihood function. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets and three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method. The code is at https://github.com/WallaceSUI/kdd25-background-variable.

Clustering is a widely deployed unsupervised learning tool. Model-based clustering is a flexible framework to tackle data heterogeneity when the clusters have different shapes. Likelihood-based inference for mixture distributions often involves non-convex and high-dimensional objective functions, imposing difficult computational and statistical challenges. The classic expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a computationally thrifty iterative method that maximizes a surrogate function minorizing the log-likelihood of observed data in each iteration, which however suffers from bad local maxima even in the special case of the standard Gaussian mixture model with common isotropic covariance matrices. On the other hand, recent studies reveal that the unique global solution of a semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxed K-means achieves the information-theoretically sharp threshold for perfectly recovering the cluster labels under the standard Gaussian mixture model. In this paper, we extend the SDP approach to a general setting by integrating cluster labels as model parameters and propose an iterative likelihood adjusted SDP (iLA-SDP) method that directly maximizes the exact observed likelihood in the presence of data heterogeneity. By lifting the cluster assignment to group-specific membership matrices, iLA-SDP avoids centroids estimation -- a key feature that allows exact recovery under well-separateness of centroids without being trapped by their adversarial configurations. Thus iLA-SDP is less sensitive than EM to initialization and more stable on high-dimensional data. Our numeric experiments demonstrate that iLA-SDP can achieve lower mis-clustering errors over several widely used clustering methods including K-means, SDP and EM algorithms.

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

In this paper, we investigate the challenges of complementary-label learning (CLL), a specialized form of weakly-supervised learning (WSL) where models are trained with labels indicating classes to which instances do not belong, rather than standard ordinary labels. This alternative supervision is appealing because collecting complementary labels is generally cheaper and less labor-intensive. Although most existing research in CLL emphasizes the development of novel loss functions, the potential of data augmentation in this domain remains largely underexplored. In this work, we uncover that the widely-used Mixup data augmentation technique is ineffective when directly applied to CLL. Through in-depth analysis, we identify that the complementary-label noise generated by Mixup negatively impacts the performance of CLL models. We then propose an improved technique called Intra-Cluster Mixup (ICM), which only synthesizes augmented data from nearby examples, to mitigate the noise effect. ICM carries the benefits of encouraging complementary label sharing of nearby examples, and leads to substantial performance improvements across synthetic and real-world labeled datasets. In particular, our wide spectrum of experimental results on both balanced and imbalanced CLL settings justifies the potential of ICM in allying with state-of-the-art CLL algorithms, achieving significant accuracy increases of 30% and 10% on MNIST and CIFAR datasets, respectively.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

We extend variational autoencoders (VAEs) to collaborative filtering for implicit feedback. This non-linear probabilistic model enables us to go beyond the limited modeling capacity of linear factor models which still largely dominate collaborative filtering research.We introduce a generative model with multinomial likelihood and use Bayesian inference for parameter estimation. Despite widespread use in language modeling and economics, the multinomial likelihood receives less attention in the recommender systems literature. We introduce a different regularization parameter for the learning objective, which proves to be crucial for achieving competitive performance. Remarkably, there is an efficient way to tune the parameter using annealing. The resulting model and learning algorithm has information-theoretic connections to maximum entropy discrimination and the information bottleneck principle. Empirically, we show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art baselines, including two recently-proposed neural network approaches, on several real-world datasets. We also provide extended experiments comparing the multinomial likelihood with other commonly used likelihood functions in the latent factor collaborative filtering literature and show favorable results. Finally, we identify the pros and cons of employing a principled Bayesian inference approach and characterize settings where it provides the most significant improvements.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

In this work, we propose Reciprocal Distribution Alignment (RDA) to address semi-supervised learning (SSL), which is a hyperparameter-free framework that is independent of confidence threshold and works with both the matched (conventionally) and the mismatched class distributions. Distribution mismatch is an often overlooked but more general SSL scenario where the labeled and the unlabeled data do not fall into the identical class distribution. This may lead to the model not exploiting the labeled data reliably and drastically degrade the performance of SSL methods, which could not be rescued by the traditional distribution alignment. In RDA, we enforce a reciprocal alignment on the distributions of the predictions from two classifiers predicting pseudo-labels and complementary labels on the unlabeled data. These two distributions, carrying complementary information, could be utilized to regularize each other without any prior of class distribution. Moreover, we theoretically show that RDA maximizes the input-output mutual information. Our approach achieves promising performance in SSL under a variety of scenarios of mismatched distributions, as well as the conventional matched SSL setting. Our code is available at: https://github.com/NJUyued/RDA4RobustSSL.

Extracting low-dimensional summary statistics from large datasets is essential for efficient (likelihood-free) inference. We characterize different classes of summaries and demonstrate their importance for correctly analysing dimensionality reduction algorithms. We demonstrate that minimizing the expected posterior entropy (EPE) under the prior predictive distribution of the model subsumes many existing methods. They are equivalent to or are special or limiting cases of minimizing the EPE. We offer a unifying framework for obtaining informative summaries, provide concrete recommendations for practitioners, and propose a practical method to obtain high-fidelity summaries whose utility we demonstrate for both benchmark and practical examples.

Inferring accurate posteriors for high-dimensional representations of the brightness of gravitationally-lensed sources is a major challenge, in part due to the difficulties of accurately quantifying the priors. Here, we report the use of a score-based model to encode the prior for the inference of undistorted images of background galaxies. This model is trained on a set of high-resolution images of undistorted galaxies. By adding the likelihood score to the prior score and using a reverse-time stochastic differential equation solver, we obtain samples from the posterior. Our method produces independent posterior samples and models the data almost down to the noise level. We show how the balance between the likelihood and the prior meet our expectations in an experiment with out-of-distribution data.

We present a novel approach for generating minority samples that live on low-density regions of a data manifold. Our framework is built upon diffusion models, leveraging the principle of guided sampling that incorporates an arbitrary energy-based guidance during inference time. The key defining feature of our sampler lies in its self-contained nature, \ie, implementable solely with a pretrained model. This distinguishes our sampler from existing techniques that require expensive additional components (like external classifiers) for minority generation. Specifically, we first estimate the likelihood of features within an intermediate latent sample by evaluating a reconstruction loss w.r.t. its posterior mean. The generation then proceeds with the minimization of the estimated likelihood, thereby encouraging the emergence of minority features in the latent samples of subsequent timesteps. To further improve the performance of our sampler, we provide several time-scheduling techniques that properly manage the influence of guidance over inference steps. Experiments on benchmark real datasets demonstrate that our approach can greatly improve the capability of creating realistic low-likelihood minority instances over the existing techniques without the reliance on costly additional elements. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/sg-minority.

A membership inference attack allows an adversary to query a trained machine learning model to predict whether or not a particular example was contained in the model's training dataset. These attacks are currently evaluated using average-case "accuracy" metrics that fail to characterize whether the attack can confidently identify any members of the training set. We argue that attacks should instead be evaluated by computing their true-positive rate at low (e.g., <0.1%) false-positive rates, and find most prior attacks perform poorly when evaluated in this way. To address this we develop a Likelihood Ratio Attack (LiRA) that carefully combines multiple ideas from the literature. Our attack is 10x more powerful at low false-positive rates, and also strictly dominates prior attacks on existing metrics.

We propose a fully data-driven approach to designing mutual information (MI) estimators. Since any MI estimator is a function of the observed sample from two random variables, we parameterize this function with a neural network (MIST) and train it end-to-end to predict MI values. Training is performed on a large meta-dataset of 625,000 synthetic joint distributions with known ground-truth MI. To handle variable sample sizes and dimensions, we employ a two-dimensional attention scheme ensuring permutation invariance across input samples. To quantify uncertainty, we optimize a quantile regression loss, enabling the estimator to approximate the sampling distribution of MI rather than return a single point estimate. This research program departs from prior work by taking a fully empirical route, trading universal theoretical guarantees for flexibility and efficiency. Empirically, the learned estimators largely outperform classical baselines across sample sizes and dimensions, including on joint distributions unseen during training. The resulting quantile-based intervals are well-calibrated and more reliable than bootstrap-based confidence intervals, while inference is orders of magnitude faster than existing neural baselines. Beyond immediate empirical gains, this framework yields trainable, fully differentiable estimators that can be embedded into larger learning pipelines. Moreover, exploiting MI's invariance to invertible transformations, meta-datasets can be adapted to arbitrary data modalities via normalizing flows, enabling flexible training for diverse target meta-distributions.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and its variants are increasingly used for aligning language models with human preferences. Although these methods are designed to teach a model to generate preferred responses more frequently relative to dispreferred responses, prior work has observed that the likelihood of preferred responses often decreases during training. The current work sheds light on the causes and implications of this counter-intuitive phenomenon, which we term likelihood displacement. We demonstrate that likelihood displacement can be catastrophic, shifting probability mass from preferred responses to responses with an opposite meaning. As a simple example, training a model to prefer No over Never can sharply increase the probability of Yes. Moreover, when aligning the model to refuse unsafe prompts, we show that such displacement can unintentionally lead to unalignment, by shifting probability mass from preferred refusal responses to harmful responses (e.g., reducing the refusal rate of Llama-3-8B-Instruct from 74.4% to 33.4%). We theoretically characterize that likelihood displacement is driven by preferences that induce similar embeddings, as measured by a centered hidden embedding similarity (CHES) score. Empirically, the CHES score enables identifying which training samples contribute most to likelihood displacement in a given dataset. Filtering out these samples effectively mitigated unintentional unalignment in our experiments. More broadly, our results highlight the importance of curating data with sufficiently distinct preferences, for which we believe the CHES score may prove valuable.

Model fusing has always been an important topic, especially in an era where large language models (LLM) and multi-modal language models (MLM) with different architectures, parameter sizes and training pipelines, are being created all the time. In this work, we propose a post-hoc framework, aiming at fusing heterogeneous models off-the-shell, which we call likelihood composition, and the basic idea is to compose multiple models' likelihood distribution when doing a multi-choice visual-question-answering task. Here the core concept, likelihood, is actually the log-probability of the candidate answer. In likelihood composition, we introduce some basic operations: debias, highlight, majority-vote and ensemble. By combining (composing) these basic elements, we get the mixed composition methods: mix-composition. Through conducting comprehensive experiments on 9 VQA datasets and 10 MLMs, we prove the effectiveness of mix-composition compared with simple ensemble or majority-vote methods. In this framework, people can propose new basic composition methods and combine them to get the new mixed composition methods. We hope our proposed likelihood composition can provide a new perspective of fusing heterogeneous models and inspire the exploration under this framework.

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

A critical component of a successful language generation pipeline is the decoding algorithm. However, the general principles that should guide the choice of decoding algorithm remain unclear. Previous works only compare decoding algorithms in narrow scenarios and their findings do not generalize across tasks. To better structure the discussion, we introduce a taxonomy that groups decoding strategies based on their implicit assumptions about how well the model's likelihood is aligned with the task-specific notion of utility. We argue that this taxonomy allows a broader view of the decoding problem and can lead to generalizable statements because it is grounded on the interplay between the decoding algorithms and the likelihood-utility misalignment. Specifically, by analyzing the correlation between the likelihood and the utility of predictions across a diverse set of tasks, we provide the first empirical evidence supporting the proposed taxonomy, and a set of principles to structure reasoning when choosing a decoding algorithm. Crucially, our analysis is the first one to relate likelihood-based decoding strategies with strategies that rely on external information such as value-guided methods and prompting, and covers the most diverse set of tasks up-to-date.

Despite considerable advancements with deep neural language models, the enigma of neural text degeneration persists when these models are tested as text generators. The counter-intuitive empirical observation is that even though the use of likelihood as training objective leads to high quality models for a broad range of language understanding tasks, using likelihood as a decoding objective leads to text that is bland and strangely repetitive. In this paper, we reveal surprising distributional differences between human text and machine text. In addition, we find that decoding strategies alone can dramatically effect the quality of machine text, even when generated from exactly the same neural language model. Our findings motivate Nucleus Sampling, a simple but effective method to draw the best out of neural generation. By sampling text from the dynamic nucleus of the probability distribution, which allows for diversity while effectively truncating the less reliable tail of the distribution, the resulting text better demonstrates the quality of human text, yielding enhanced diversity without sacrificing fluency and coherence.

In self-supervised learning, a system is tasked with achieving a surrogate objective by defining alternative targets on a set of unlabeled data. The aim is to build useful representations that can be used in downstream tasks, without costly manual annotation. In this work, we propose a novel self-supervised formulation of relational reasoning that allows a learner to bootstrap a signal from information implicit in unlabeled data. Training a relation head to discriminate how entities relate to themselves (intra-reasoning) and other entities (inter-reasoning), results in rich and descriptive representations in the underlying neural network backbone, which can be used in downstream tasks such as classification and image retrieval. We evaluate the proposed method following a rigorous experimental procedure, using standard datasets, protocols, and backbones. Self-supervised relational reasoning outperforms the best competitor in all conditions by an average 14% in accuracy, and the most recent state-of-the-art model by 3%. We link the effectiveness of the method to the maximization of a Bernoulli log-likelihood, which can be considered as a proxy for maximizing the mutual information, resulting in a more efficient objective with respect to the commonly used contrastive losses.

We revisit the likelihood ratio between a pretrained large language model (LLM) and its finetuned variant as a criterion for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. The intuition behind such a criterion is that, the pretrained LLM has the prior knowledge about OOD data due to its large amount of training data, and once finetuned with the in-distribution data, the LLM has sufficient knowledge to distinguish their difference. Leveraging the power of LLMs, we show that, the likelihood ratio can serve as an effective OOD detection criterion. Moreover, we apply the proposed LLM-based likelihood ratio to detect OOD questions in question-answering (QA) systems, which can be used to improve the performance of specialized LLMs for general questions. Given that likelihood can be easily obtained by the loss functions within contemporary neural network frameworks, it is straightforward to implement this approach in practice. Since both the pretrained LLMs and its various finetuned models are widely available from online platforms such as Hugging Face, our proposed criterion can be effortlessly incorporated for OOD detection without the need for further training. We conduct comprehensive evaluation across on multiple settings, including far OOD, near OOD, spam detection, and QA scenarios, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Code can be found at https://github.com/andiac/LLMOODratio

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this work, we first show that BNN+LV suffers from a serious form of non-identifiability: explanatory power can be transferred between the model parameters and latent variables while fitting the data equally well. We demonstrate that as a result, in the limit of infinite data, the posterior mode over the network weights and latent variables is asymptotically biased away from the ground-truth. Due to this asymptotic bias, traditional inference methods may in practice yield parameters that generalize poorly and misestimate uncertainty. Next, we develop a novel inference procedure that explicitly mitigates the effects of likelihood non-identifiability during training and yields high-quality predictions as well as uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that our inference method improves upon benchmark methods across a range of synthetic and real data-sets.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the spatial layout of a place, a home floorplan for example, from a user`s movements inside that layout. Direct inversion is ill-posed since many floorplans can explain the same movement trajectories. We adopt a diffusion-based posterior sampler to generate layouts consistent with the measurements. While active research is in progress on generative inverse solvers, we find that the forward operator in our problem poses new challenges. The path-planning process inside a floorplan is a non-invertible, non-differentiable function, and causes instability while optimizing using the likelihood score. We break-away from existing approaches and reformulate the likelihood score in a smoother embedding space. The embedding space is trained with a contrastive loss which brings compatible floorplans and trajectories close to each other, while pushing mismatched pairs far apart. We show that a surrogate form of the likelihood score in this embedding space is a valid approximation of the true likelihood score, making it possible to steer the denoising process towards the posterior. Across extensive experiments, our model CoGuide produces more consistent floorplans from trajectories, and is more robust than differentiable-planner baselines and guided-diffusion methods.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive mmd estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

Complementary-label learning (CLL) is a weakly supervised learning paradigm for multiclass classification, where only complementary labels -- indicating classes an instance does not belong to -- are provided to the learning algorithm. Despite CLL's increasing popularity, previous studies highlight two main challenges: (1) inconsistent results arising from varied assumptions on complementary label generation, and (2) high barriers to entry due to the lack of a standardized evaluation platform across datasets and algorithms. To address these challenges, we introduce libcll, an extensible Python toolkit for CLL research. libcll provides a universal interface that supports a wide range of generation assumptions, both synthetic and real-world datasets, and key CLL algorithms. The toolkit is designed to mitigate inconsistencies and streamline the research process, with easy installation, comprehensive usage guides, and quickstart tutorials that facilitate efficient adoption and implementation of CLL techniques. Extensive ablation studies conducted with libcll demonstrate its utility in generating valuable insights to advance future CLL research.

Averaging the parameters of models that have the same architecture and initialization can provide a means of combining their respective capabilities. In this paper, we take the perspective that this "merging" operation can be seen as choosing parameters that approximately maximize the joint likelihood of the posteriors of the models' parameters. Computing a simple average of the models' parameters therefore corresponds to making an isotropic Gaussian approximation to their posteriors. We develop an alternative merging procedure based on the Laplace approximation where we approximate each model's posterior as a Gaussian distribution whose precision matrix corresponds to its Fisher information. We first show that our "Fisher merging" technique provides a performance boost in settings where simple parameter averaging is currently used -- specifically, robust fine-tuning and model ensembling. Then, we compare merging to standard gradient-based transfer learning and demonstrate that merging enables a fundamentally different method for transferring capabilities across models. Specifically, we show that Fisher merging is competitive with gradient-based transfer learning approaches (while being significantly cheaper) in intermediate-task training and domain-adaptive pre-training. We also show that our merging procedure makes it possible to combine models in previously unexplored ways. We release our code to facilitate future research into methods for merging models.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum distance estimation, generalised Bayesian inference, and within the nonparametric learning framework. The MMD is commonly estimated at a root-m rate, where m is the number of simulated samples. This can lead to significant computational challenges since a large m is required to obtain an accurate estimate, which is crucial for parameter estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for the MMD with significantly improved sample complexity. The estimator is particularly well suited for computationally expensive smooth simulators with low- to mid-dimensional inputs. This claim is supported through both theoretical results and an extensive simulation study on benchmark simulators.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

Sequential learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is challenging when access to past data is limited, for example, in continual and active learning. In such cases, errors can accumulate over time due to inaccuracies in the posterior, hyperparameters, and inducing points, making accurate learning challenging. Here, we present a method to keep all such errors in check using the recently proposed dual sparse variational GP. Our method enables accurate inference for generic likelihoods and improves learning by actively building and updating a memory of past data. We demonstrate its effectiveness in several applications involving Bayesian optimization, active learning, and continual learning.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Causal effects are usually studied in terms of the means of counterfactual distributions, which may be insufficient in many scenarios. Given a class of densities known up to normalizing constants, we propose to model counterfactual distributions by minimizing kernel Stein discrepancies in a doubly robust manner. This enables the estimation of counterfactuals over large classes of distributions while exploiting the desired double robustness. We present a theoretical analysis of the proposed estimator, providing sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality, as well as an examination of its empirical performance.

Generative models can now produce photorealistic synthetic data which is virtually indistinguishable from the real data used to train it. This is a significant evolution over previous models which could produce reasonable facsimiles of the training data, but ones which could be visually distinguished from the training data by human evaluation. Recent work on OOD detection has raised doubts that generative model likelihoods are optimal OOD detectors due to issues involving likelihood misestimation, entropy in the generative process, and typicality. We speculate that generative OOD detectors also failed because their models focused on the pixels rather than the semantic content of the data, leading to failures in near-OOD cases where the pixels may be similar but the information content is significantly different. We hypothesize that estimating typical sets using self-supervised learners leads to better OOD detectors. We introduce a novel approach that leverages representation learning, and informative summary statistics based on manifold estimation, to address all of the aforementioned issues. Our method outperforms other unsupervised approaches and achieves state-of-the art performance on well-established challenging benchmarks, and new synthetic data detection tasks.

The development of state-of-the-art (SOTA) Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems has steadily been establishing new techniques to absorb the statistics of linguistic data. These techniques often trace well-known constructs from traditional theories, and we study these connections to close gaps around key NLP methods as a means to orient future work. For this, we introduce an analytic model of the statistics learned by seminal algorithms (including GloVe and Word2Vec), and derive insights for systems that use these algorithms and the statistics of co-occurrence, in general. In this work, we derive -- to the best of our knowledge -- the first known solution to Word2Vec's softmax-optimized, skip-gram algorithm. This result presents exciting potential for future development as a direct solution to a deep learning (DL) language model's (LM's) matrix factorization. However, we use the solution to demonstrate a seemingly-universal existence of a property that word vectors exhibit and which allows for the prophylactic discernment of biases in data -- prior to their absorption by DL models. To qualify our work, we conduct an analysis of independence, i.e., on the density of statistical dependencies in co-occurrence models, which in turn renders insights on the distributional hypothesis' partial fulfillment by co-occurrence statistics.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Labeling training data has become one of the major roadblocks to using machine learning. Among various weak supervision paradigms, programmatic weak supervision (PWS) has achieved remarkable success in easing the manual labeling bottleneck by programmatically synthesizing training labels from multiple potentially noisy supervision sources. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent advances in PWS. In particular, we give a brief introduction of the PWS learning paradigm, and review representative approaches for each component within PWS's learning workflow. In addition, we discuss complementary learning paradigms for tackling limited labeled data scenarios and how these related approaches can be used in conjunction with PWS. Finally, we identify several critical challenges that remain under-explored in the area to hopefully inspire future research directions in the field.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

Mixture of experts (MoE) has a well-principled finite mixture model construction for prediction, allowing the gating network (mixture weights) to learn from the predictors (explanatory variables) together with the experts' network (mixture component densities). We investigate the estimation properties of MoEs in a high-dimensional setting, where the number of predictors is much larger than the sample size, for which the literature lacks computational and especially theoretical results. We consider the class of finite MoE models with softmax gating functions and Gaussian regression experts, and focus on the theoretical properties of their l_1-regularized estimation via the Lasso. We provide a lower bound on the regularization parameter of the Lasso penalty that ensures an l_1-oracle inequality is satisfied by the Lasso estimator according to the Kullback--Leibler loss. We further state an l_1-ball oracle inequality for the l_1-penalized maximum likelihood estimator from the model selection.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

Dirichlet Process mixture models (DPMM) in combination with Gaussian kernels have been an important modeling tool for numerous data domains arising from biological, physical, and social sciences. However, this versatility in applications does not extend to strong theoretical guarantees for the underlying parameter estimates, for which only a logarithmic rate is achieved. In this work, we (re)introduce and investigate a metric, named Orlicz-Wasserstein distance, in the study of the Bayesian contraction behavior for the parameters. We show that despite the overall slow convergence guarantees for all the parameters, posterior contraction for parameters happens at almost polynomial rates in outlier regions of the parameter space. Our theoretical results provide new insight in understanding the convergence behavior of parameters arising from various settings of hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. In addition, we provide an algorithm to compute the metric by leveraging Sinkhorn divergences and validate our findings through a simulation study.

Hollmann et al. (Nature 637 (2025) 319-326) recently introduced TabPFN, a transformer-based deep learning model for regression and classification on tabular data, which they claim "outperforms all previous methods on datasets with up to 10,000 samples by a wide margin, using substantially less training time." Furthermore, they have called TabPFN a "foundation model" for tabular data, as it can support "data generation, density estimation, learning reusable embeddings and fine-tuning". In this paper, we provide a tailored explanation of how TabPFN works for a statistics audience, by emphasizing its interpretation as approximate Bayesian inference. We then explore the significance of TabPFN to the field of statistics: We show that an out-of-the-box application of TabPFN can sometimes outperform specialized state-of-the-art methods for semi-supervised parameter estimation, prediction under covariate shift, and heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. As a partial explanation for the predictive effectiveness of TabPFN, we show that it can simultaneously adapt to both nonparametric structure and parametric structure, for instance, sometimes outperforming LASSO even when assumptions are correctly specified. All experiments can be reproduced using the code provided at https://github.com/qinglong-tian/tabpfn_study (https://github.com/qinglong-tian/tabpfn_study).

Many existing conditional score-based data generation methods utilize Bayes' theorem to decompose the gradients of a log posterior density into a mixture of scores. These methods facilitate the training procedure of conditional score models, as a mixture of scores can be separately estimated using a score model and a classifier. However, our analysis indicates that the training objectives for the classifier in these methods may lead to a serious score mismatch issue, which corresponds to the situation that the estimated scores deviate from the true ones. Such an issue causes the samples to be misled by the deviated scores during the diffusion process, resulting in a degraded sampling quality. To resolve it, we formulate a novel training objective, called Denoising Likelihood Score Matching (DLSM) loss, for the classifier to match the gradients of the true log likelihood density. Our experimental evidence shows that the proposed method outperforms the previous methods on both Cifar-10 and Cifar-100 benchmarks noticeably in terms of several key evaluation metrics. We thus conclude that, by adopting DLSM, the conditional scores can be accurately modeled, and the effect of the score mismatch issue is alleviated.

We revisit Zadeh's notion of "evidence of the second kind" and show that it provides the foundation for a general theory of epistemic random fuzzy sets, which generalizes both the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions and possibility theory. In this perspective, Dempster-Shafer theory deals with belief functions generated by random sets, while possibility theory deals with belief functions induced by fuzzy sets. The more general theory allows us to represent and combine evidence that is both uncertain and fuzzy. We demonstrate the application of this formalism to statistical inference, and show that it makes it possible to reconcile the possibilistic interpretation of likelihood with Bayesian inference.

Variational approaches based on neural networks are showing promise for estimating mutual information (MI) between high dimensional variables. However, they can be difficult to use in practice due to poorly understood bias/variance tradeoffs. We theoretically show that, under some conditions, estimators such as MINE exhibit variance that could grow exponentially with the true amount of underlying MI. We also empirically demonstrate that existing estimators fail to satisfy basic self-consistency properties of MI, such as data processing and additivity under independence. Based on a unified perspective of variational approaches, we develop a new estimator that focuses on variance reduction. Empirical results on standard benchmark tasks demonstrate that our proposed estimator exhibits improved bias-variance trade-offs on standard benchmark tasks.

We establish a new theoretical framework for learning under multi-class, instance-dependent label noise. This framework casts learning with label noise as a form of domain adaptation, in particular, domain adaptation under posterior drift. We introduce the concept of relative signal strength (RSS), a pointwise measure that quantifies the transferability from noisy to clean posterior. Using RSS, we establish nearly matching upper and lower bounds on the excess risk. Our theoretical findings support the simple Noise Ignorant Empirical Risk Minimization (NI-ERM) principle, which minimizes empirical risk while ignoring label noise. Finally, we translate this theoretical insight into practice: by using NI-ERM to fit a linear classifier on top of a self-supervised feature extractor, we achieve state-of-the-art performance on the CIFAR-N data challenge.

Training energy-based models (EBMs) on high-dimensional data can be both challenging and time-consuming, and there exists a noticeable gap in sample quality between EBMs and other generative frameworks like GANs and diffusion models. To close this gap, inspired by the recent efforts of learning EBMs by maximizing diffusion recovery likelihood (DRL), we propose cooperative diffusion recovery likelihood (CDRL), an effective approach to tractably learn and sample from a series of EBMs defined on increasingly noisy versions of a dataset, paired with an initializer model for each EBM. At each noise level, the two models are jointly estimated within a cooperative training framework: samples from the initializer serve as starting points that are refined by a few MCMC sampling steps from the EBM. The EBM is then optimized by maximizing recovery likelihood, while the initializer model is optimized by learning from the difference between the refined samples and the initial samples. In addition, we made several practical designs for EBM training to further improve the sample quality. Combining these advances, our approach significantly boost the generation performance compared to existing EBM methods on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our models for several downstream tasks, including classifier-free guided generation, compositional generation, image inpainting and out-of-distribution detection.

The assumption that response and predictor belong to the same statistical unit may be violated in practice. Unbiased estimation and recovery of true label ordering based on unlabeled data are challenging tasks and have attracted increasing attentions in the recent literature. In this paper, we present a relatively complete analysis of label permutation problem for the generalized linear model with multivariate responses. The theory is established under different scenarios, with knowledge of true parameters, with partial knowledge of underlying label permutation matrix and without any knowledge. Our results remove the stringent conditions required by the current literature and are further extended to the missing observation setting which has never been considered in the field of label permutation problem. On computational side, we propose two methods, "maximum likelihood estimation" algorithm and "two-step estimation" algorithm, to accommodate for different settings. When the proportion of permuted labels is moderate, both methods work effectively. Multiple numerical experiments are provided and corroborate our theoretical findings.

Generalization is arguably the most important goal of statistical language modeling research. Publicly available benchmarks and papers published with an open-source code have been critical to advancing the field. However, it is often very difficult, and sometimes even impossible, to reproduce the results fully as reported in publications. In this paper, we propose a simple framework that should help advance the state of the art in language modeling in terms of generalization. We propose to publish not just the code, but also probabilities on dev and test sets with future publications so that one can easily add the new model into an ensemble. This has crucial advantages: it is much easier to determine whether a newly proposed model is actually complementary to the current baseline. Therefore, instead of inventing new names for the old tricks, the scientific community can advance faster. Finally, this approach promotes diversity of ideas: one does not need to create an individual model that is the new state of the art to attract attention; it will be sufficient to develop a new model that learns patterns which other models do not. Thus, even a suboptimal model can be found to have value. Remarkably, our approach has yielded new state-of-the-art results across various language modeling benchmarks up to 10%.

Normalizing flows are powerful non-parametric statistical models that function as a hybrid between density estimators and generative models. Current learning algorithms for normalizing flows assume that data points are sampled independently, an assumption that is frequently violated in practice, which may lead to erroneous density estimation and data generation. We propose a likelihood objective of normalizing flows incorporating dependencies between the data points, for which we derive a flexible and efficient learning algorithm suitable for different dependency structures. We show that respecting dependencies between observations can improve empirical results on both synthetic and real-world data, and leads to higher statistical power in a downstream application to genome-wide association studies.

The explosion of large-scale data in fields such as finance, e-commerce, and social media has outstripped the processing capabilities of single-machine systems, driving the need for distributed statistical inference methods. Traditional approaches to distributed inference often struggle with achieving true sparsity in high-dimensional datasets and involve high computational costs. We propose a novel, two-stage, distributed best subset selection algorithm to address these issues. Our approach starts by efficiently estimating the active set while adhering to the ell_0 norm-constrained surrogate likelihood function, effectively reducing dimensionality and isolating key variables. A refined estimation within the active set follows, ensuring sparse estimates and matching the minimax ell_2 error bound. We introduce a new splicing technique for adaptive parameter selection to tackle subproblems under ell_0 constraints and a Generalized Information Criterion (GIC). Our theoretical and numerical studies show that the proposed algorithm correctly finds the true sparsity pattern, has the oracle property, and greatly lowers communication costs. This is a big step forward in distributed sparse estimation.

The task of mixture proportion estimation (MPE) is to estimate the weight of a component distribution in a mixture, given observations from both the component and mixture. Previous work on MPE adopts the irreducibility assumption, which ensures identifiablity of the mixture proportion. In this paper, we propose a more general sufficient condition that accommodates several settings of interest where irreducibility does not hold. We further present a resampling-based meta-algorithm that takes any existing MPE algorithm designed to work under irreducibility and adapts it to work under our more general condition. Our approach empirically exhibits improved estimation performance relative to baseline methods and to a recently proposed regrouping-based algorithm.

Building training-ready multi-hop question answering (QA) datasets that truly stress a model's retrieval and reasoning abilities remains highly challenging recently. While there have been a few recent evaluation datasets that capture the characteristics of hard-to-search but easy-to-verify problems -- requiring the integration of ambiguous, indirect, and cross-domain cues -- these data resources remain scarce and are mostly designed for evaluation, making them unsuitable for supervised fine-tuning (SFT) or reinforcement learning (RL). Meanwhile, manually curating non-trivially retrievable questions -- where answers cannot be found through a single direct query but instead require multi-hop reasoning over oblique and loosely connected evidence -- incurs prohibitive human costs and fails to scale, creating a critical data bottleneck for training high-capability retrieval-and-reasoning agents. To address this, we present an automated framework for generating high-difficulty, training-ready multi-hop questions from semi-structured knowledge sources. The system (i) grows diverse, logically labeled evidence clusters through Natural Language Inference (NLI)-based relation typing and diversity-aware expansion; (ii) applies reverse question construction to compose oblique cues so that isolated signals are underinformative but their combination uniquely identifies the target entity; and (iii) enforces quality with a two-step evaluation pipeline that combines multi-model consensus filtering with structured constraint decomposition and evidence-based matching. The result is a scalable process that yields complex, retrieval-resistant yet verifiable questions suitable for SFT/RL training as well as challenging evaluation, substantially reducing human curation effort while preserving the difficulty profile of strong evaluation benchmarks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used to evaluate natural language generation tasks as automated metrics. However, the likelihood, a measure of LLM's plausibility for a sentence, can vary due to superficial differences in sentences, such as word order and sentence structure. It is therefore possible that there might be a likelihood bias if LLMs are used for evaluation: they might overrate sentences with higher likelihoods while underrating those with lower likelihoods. In this paper, we investigate the presence and impact of likelihood bias in LLM-based evaluators. We also propose a method to mitigate the likelihood bias. Our method utilizes highly biased instances as few-shot examples for in-context learning. Our experiments in evaluating the data-to-text and grammatical error correction tasks reveal that several LLMs we test display a likelihood bias. Furthermore, our proposed method successfully mitigates this bias, also improving evaluation performance (in terms of correlation of models with human scores) significantly.

This review paper is intended for the 2nd edition of the Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo. We provide an introduction to approximate inference techniques as Bayesian computation methods applied to deep learning models. We organize the chapter by presenting popular computational methods for Bayesian neural networks and deep generative models, explaining their unique challenges in posterior inference as well as the solutions.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

In this work, we define a diffusion-based generative model capable of both music synthesis and source separation by learning the score of the joint probability density of sources sharing a context. Alongside the classic total inference tasks (i.e., generating a mixture, separating the sources), we also introduce and experiment on the partial generation task of source imputation, where we generate a subset of the sources given the others (e.g., play a piano track that goes well with the drums). Additionally, we introduce a novel inference method for the separation task based on Dirac likelihood functions. We train our model on Slakh2100, a standard dataset for musical source separation, provide qualitative results in the generation settings, and showcase competitive quantitative results in the source separation setting. Our method is the first example of a single model that can handle both generation and separation tasks, thus representing a step toward general audio models.

In this paper, we present a novel approach to accelerate the Bayesian inference process, focusing specifically on the nested sampling algorithms. Bayesian inference plays a crucial role in cosmological parameter estimation, providing a robust framework for extracting theoretical insights from observational data. However, its computational demands can be substantial, primarily due to the need for numerous likelihood function evaluations. Our proposed method utilizes the power of deep learning, employing feedforward neural networks to approximate the likelihood function dynamically during the Bayesian inference process. Unlike traditional approaches, our method trains neural networks on-the-fly using the current set of live points as training data, without the need for pre-training. This flexibility enables adaptation to various theoretical models and datasets. We perform simple hyperparameter optimization using genetic algorithms to suggest initial neural network architectures for learning each likelihood function. Once sufficient accuracy is achieved, the neural network replaces the original likelihood function. The implementation integrates with nested sampling algorithms and has been thoroughly evaluated using both simple cosmological dark energy models and diverse observational datasets. Additionally, we explore the potential of genetic algorithms for generating initial live points within nested sampling inference, opening up new avenues for enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of Bayesian inference methods.

We propose two approaches to extend the notion of knowledge distillation to Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Gaussian Process Classification (GPC); data-centric and distribution-centric. The data-centric approach resembles most current distillation techniques for machine learning, and refits a model on deterministic predictions from the teacher, while the distribution-centric approach, re-uses the full probabilistic posterior for the next iteration. By analyzing the properties of these approaches, we show that the data-centric approach for GPR closely relates to known results for self-distillation of kernel ridge regression and that the distribution-centric approach for GPR corresponds to ordinary GPR with a very particular choice of hyperparameters. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the distribution-centric approach for GPC approximately corresponds to data duplication and a particular scaling of the covariance and that the data-centric approach for GPC requires redefining the model from a Binomial likelihood to a continuous Bernoulli likelihood to be well-specified. To the best of our knowledge, our proposed approaches are the first to formulate knowledge distillation specifically for Gaussian Process models.

This paper presents a Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model specially suitable for exploratory analysis of high-dimensional count data. We perform a non-negative doubly sparse matrix factorization that has two main advantages: not only we are able to better approximate the row input distributions, but the inferred topics are also easier to interpret. By combining the three-parameter and restricted Indian buffet processes into a single prior, we increase the model flexibility, allowing for a full spectrum of sparse solutions in the latent space. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach in the analysis of countries' economic structure. Compared to other approaches, empirical results show our model's ability to give easy-to-interpret information and better capture the underlying sparsity structure of data.

Recent work finds that retrieval-augmented generation with large language models is prone to be influenced by the order of retrieved documents in the context. However, the lack of in-depth analysis limits the use of this phenomenon for prompt engineering in practice. In this study, we posit that likelihoods serve as an effective gauge for language model performance. Through experiments on two question-answering datasets with a variety of state-of-the-art language models, we reveal correlations between answer accuracy and the likelihood of the question at both the corpus level and the instance level. In addition, we find that question likelihood can also indicate the position of the task-relevant information in the context. Based on these findings, we propose two methods that use question likelihood as a gauge for selecting and constructing prompts that lead to better performance. We demonstrate their effectiveness with experiments. In addition, our likelihood-based methods are efficient, as they only need to compute the likelihood of the input, requiring much fewer language model passes than heuristic prompt engineering methods that require generating responses. Our analysis deepens our understanding of how input prompts affect model performance and provides a promising direction for efficient prompt optimization.

Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to (doubly-stochastic) Gaussian Cox processes, where the observation process is modulated by a latent intensity function modeled as a GP. In this paper, we propose a novel maximum a posteriori inference of Gaussian Cox processes. It leverages the Laplace approximation and change of kernel technique to transform the problem into a new reproducing kernel Hilbert space, where it becomes more tractable computationally. It enables us to obtain both a functional posterior of the latent intensity function and the covariance of the posterior, thus extending existing works that often focus on specific link functions or estimating the posterior mean. Using the result, we propose a BO framework based on the Gaussian Cox process model and further develop a Nystr\"om approximation for efficient computation. Extensive evaluations on various synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvement over state-of-the-art inference solutions for Gaussian Cox processes, as well as effective BO with a wide range of acquisition functions designed through the underlying Gaussian Cox process model.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

In reasoning tasks, even a minor error can cascade into inaccurate results, leading to suboptimal performance of large language models in such domains. Earlier fine-tuning approaches sought to mitigate this by leveraging more precise supervisory signals from human labeling, larger models, or self-sampling, although at a high cost. Conversely, we develop a method that avoids external resources, relying instead on introducing perturbations to the input. Our training approach randomly masks certain tokens within the chain of thought, a technique we found to be particularly effective for reasoning tasks. When applied to fine-tuning with GSM8K, this method achieved a 5% improvement in accuracy over standard supervised fine-tuning with a few codes modified and no additional labeling effort. Furthermore, it is complementary to existing methods. When integrated with related data augmentation methods, it leads to an average improvement of 3% improvement in GSM8K accuracy and 1% improvement in MATH accuracy across five datasets of various quality and size, as well as two base models. We further investigate the mechanisms behind this improvement through case studies and quantitative analysis, suggesting that our approach may provide superior support for the model in capturing long-distance dependencies, especially those related to questions. This enhancement could deepen understanding of premises in questions and prior steps. Our code is available at Github.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

Diffusion-based generative models (DBGMs) perturb data to a target noise distribution and reverse this process to generate samples. The choice of noising process, or inference diffusion process, affects both likelihoods and sample quality. For example, extending the inference process with auxiliary variables leads to improved sample quality. While there are many such multivariate diffusions to explore, each new one requires significant model-specific analysis, hindering rapid prototyping and evaluation. In this work, we study Multivariate Diffusion Models (MDMs). For any number of auxiliary variables, we provide a recipe for maximizing a lower-bound on the MDMs likelihood without requiring any model-specific analysis. We then demonstrate how to parameterize the diffusion for a specified target noise distribution; these two points together enable optimizing the inference diffusion process. Optimizing the diffusion expands easy experimentation from just a few well-known processes to an automatic search over all linear diffusions. To demonstrate these ideas, we introduce two new specific diffusions as well as learn a diffusion process on the MNIST, CIFAR10, and ImageNet32 datasets. We show learned MDMs match or surpass bits-per-dims (BPDs) relative to fixed choices of diffusions for a given dataset and model architecture.

Learning in Gaussian Process models occurs through the adaptation of hyperparameters of the mean and the covariance function. The classical approach entails maximizing the marginal likelihood yielding fixed point estimates (an approach called Type II maximum likelihood or ML-II). An alternative learning procedure is to infer the posterior over hyperparameters in a hierarchical specification of GPs we call Fully Bayesian Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). This work considers two approximation schemes for the intractable hyperparameter posterior: 1) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) yielding a sampling-based approximation and 2) Variational Inference (VI) where the posterior over hyperparameters is approximated by a factorized Gaussian (mean-field) or a full-rank Gaussian accounting for correlations between hyperparameters. We analyze the predictive performance for fully Bayesian GPR on a range of benchmark data sets.

Inspired by the foundational works by Spivak and Fong and Cruttwell et al., we introduce a categorical framework to formalize Bayesian inference and learning. The two key ideas at play here are the notions of Bayesian inversions and the functor GL as constructed by Cruttwell et al.. In this context, we find that Bayesian learning is the simplest case of the learning paradigm. We then obtain categorical formulations of batch and sequential Bayes updates while also verifying that the two coincide in a specific example.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical probability levels to WEP. For example, highly likely corresponds to a median chance of 0.90+-0.08 in Fagen-Ulmschneider (2015)'s survey. In this work, we measure the ability of neural language processing models to capture the consensual probability level associated to each WEP. Firstly, we use the UNLI dataset (Chen et al., 2020) which associates premises and hypotheses with their perceived joint probability p, to construct prompts, e.g. "[PREMISE]. [WEP], [HYPOTHESIS]." and assess whether language models can predict whether the WEP consensual probability level is close to p. Secondly, we construct a dataset of WEP-based probabilistic reasoning, to test whether language models can reason with WEP compositions. When prompted "[EVENTA] is likely. [EVENTB] is impossible.", a causal language model should not express that [EVENTA&B] is likely. We show that both tasks are unsolved by off-the-shelf English language models, but that fine-tuning leads to transferable improvement.

We present a new methodology for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) images by utilizing norms of the score estimates at multiple noise scales. A score is defined to be the gradient of the log density with respect to the input data. Our methodology is completely unsupervised and follows a straight forward training scheme. First, we train a deep network to estimate scores for levels of noise. Once trained, we calculate the noisy score estimates for N in-distribution samples and take the L2-norms across the input dimensions (resulting in an NxL matrix). Then we train an auxiliary model (such as a Gaussian Mixture Model) to learn the in-distribution spatial regions in this L-dimensional space. This auxiliary model can now be used to identify points that reside outside the learned space. Despite its simplicity, our experiments show that this methodology significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art in detecting out-of-distribution images. For example, our method can effectively separate CIFAR-10 (inlier) and SVHN (OOD) images, a setting which has been previously shown to be difficult for deep likelihood models.

Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large language models (LLMs) are insufficient for accurate estimations, but they can generate relevant factors that may affect the probabilities, produce coarse-grained probabilities when the information is more complete, and help determine which factors are relevant to specific downstream contexts. In this paper, we make use of these capabilities of LLMs to provide a significantly more accurate probabilistic estimation. We propose BIRD, a novel probabilistic inference framework that aligns a Bayesian network with LLM abductions and then estimates more accurate probabilities in a deduction step. We show BIRD provides reliable probability estimations that are 30% better than those provided directly by LLM baselines. These estimates further contribute to better and more trustworthy decision making.

PixelCNNs are a recently proposed class of powerful generative models with tractable likelihood. Here we discuss our implementation of PixelCNNs which we make available at https://github.com/openai/pixel-cnn. Our implementation contains a number of modifications to the original model that both simplify its structure and improve its performance. 1) We use a discretized logistic mixture likelihood on the pixels, rather than a 256-way softmax, which we find to speed up training. 2) We condition on whole pixels, rather than R/G/B sub-pixels, simplifying the model structure. 3) We use downsampling to efficiently capture structure at multiple resolutions. 4) We introduce additional short-cut connections to further speed up optimization. 5) We regularize the model using dropout. Finally, we present state-of-the-art log likelihood results on CIFAR-10 to demonstrate the usefulness of these modifications.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

We present a novel stochastic variational Gaussian process (GP) inference method, based on a posterior over a learnable set of weighted pseudo input-output points (coresets). Instead of a free-form variational family, the proposed coreset-based, variational tempered family for GPs (CVTGP) is defined in terms of the GP prior and the data-likelihood; hence, accommodating the modeling inductive biases. We derive CVTGP's lower bound for the log-marginal likelihood via marginalization of the proposed posterior over latent GP coreset variables, and show it is amenable to stochastic optimization. CVTGP reduces the learnable parameter size to O(M), enjoys numerical stability, and maintains O(M^3) time- and O(M^2) space-complexity, by leveraging a coreset-based tempered posterior that, in turn, provides sparse and explainable representations of the data. Results on simulated and real-world regression problems with Gaussian observation noise validate that CVTGP provides better evidence lower-bound estimates and predictive root mean squared error than alternative stochastic GP inference methods.

Diffusion models have gained traction as powerful algorithms for synthesizing high-quality images. Central to these algorithms is the diffusion process, a set of equations which maps data to noise in a way that can significantly affect performance. In this paper, we explore whether the diffusion process can be learned from data. Our work is grounded in Bayesian inference and seeks to improve log-likelihood estimation by casting the learned diffusion process as an approximate variational posterior that yields a tighter lower bound (ELBO) on the likelihood. A widely held assumption is that the ELBO is invariant to the noise process: our work dispels this assumption and proposes multivariate learned adaptive noise (MULAN), a learned diffusion process that applies noise at different rates across an image. Specifically, our method relies on a multivariate noise schedule that is a function of the data to ensure that the ELBO is no longer invariant to the choice of the noise schedule as in previous works. Empirically, MULAN sets a new state-of-the-art in density estimation on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet and reduces the number of training steps by 50%. Code is available at https://github.com/s-sahoo/MuLAN

Generative Models (GMs) have attracted considerable attention due to their tremendous success in various domains, such as computer vision where they are capable to generate impressive realistic-looking images. Likelihood-based GMs are attractive due to the possibility to generate new data by a single model evaluation. However, they typically achieve lower sample quality compared to state-of-the-art score-based diffusion models (DMs). This paper provides a significant step in the direction of addressing this limitation. The idea is to borrow one of the strengths of score-based DMs, which is the ability to perform accurate density estimation in low-density regions and to address manifold overfitting by means of data mollification. We connect data mollification through the addition of Gaussian noise to Gaussian homotopy, which is a well-known technique to improve optimization. Data mollification can be implemented by adding one line of code in the optimization loop, and we demonstrate that this provides a boost in generation quality of likelihood-based GMs, without computational overheads. We report results on image data sets with popular likelihood-based GMs, including variants of variational autoencoders and normalizing flows, showing large improvements in FID score.

Deep generative models have been demonstrated as state-of-the-art density estimators. Yet, recent work has found that they often assign a higher likelihood to data from outside the training distribution. This seemingly paradoxical behavior has caused concerns over the quality of the attained density estimates. In the context of hierarchical variational autoencoders, we provide evidence to explain this behavior by out-of-distribution data having in-distribution low-level features. We argue that this is both expected and desirable behavior. With this insight in hand, we develop a fast, scalable and fully unsupervised likelihood-ratio score for OOD detection that requires data to be in-distribution across all feature-levels. We benchmark the method on a vast set of data and model combinations and achieve state-of-the-art results on out-of-distribution detection.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained) low-dimensional representation. However, low-dimensional representations can lose information about the observed confounders and thus lead to bias, because of which the validity of representation learning for CATE estimation is typically violated. In this paper, we propose a new, representation-agnostic framework for estimating bounds on the representation-induced confounding bias that comes from dimensionality reduction (or other constraints on the representations) in CATE estimation. First, we establish theoretically under which conditions CATEs are non-identifiable given low-dimensional (constrained) representations. Second, as our remedy, we propose to perform partial identification of CATEs or, equivalently, aim at estimating of lower and upper bounds of the representation-induced confounding bias. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our bounds in a series of experiments. In sum, our framework is of direct relevance in practice where the validity of CATE estimation is of importance.

Learning complex functions that involve multi-step reasoning poses a significant challenge for standard supervised learning from input-output examples. Chain-of-thought (CoT) supervision, which provides intermediate reasoning steps together with the final output, has emerged as a powerful empirical technique, underpinning much of the recent progress in the reasoning capabilities of large language models. This paper develops a statistical theory of learning under CoT supervision. A key characteristic of the CoT setting, in contrast to standard supervision, is the mismatch between the training objective (CoT risk) and the test objective (end-to-end risk). A central part of our analysis, distinguished from prior work, is explicitly linking those two types of risk to achieve sharper sample complexity bounds. This is achieved via the *CoT information measure* I_{D, h_star}^{CoT}(epsilon; calH), which quantifies the additional discriminative power gained from observing the reasoning process. The main theoretical results demonstrate how CoT supervision can yield significantly faster learning rates compared to standard E2E supervision. Specifically, it is shown that the sample complexity required to achieve a target E2E error epsilon scales as d/I_{D, h_star}^{CoT}(epsilon; calH), where d is a measure of hypothesis class complexity, which can be much faster than standard d/epsilon rates. Information-theoretic lower bounds in terms of the CoT information are also obtained. Together, these results suggest that CoT information is a fundamental measure of statistical complexity for learning under chain-of-thought supervision.

A fundamental question in modern machine learning is why large, over-parameterized models, such as deep neural networks and transformers, tend to generalize well, even when their number of parameters far exceeds the number of training samples. We investigate this phenomenon through the lens of information theory, grounded in universal learning theory. Specifically, we study a Bayesian mixture learner with log-loss and (almost) uniform prior over an expansive hypothesis class. Our key result shows that the learner's regret is not determined by the overall size of the hypothesis class, but rather by the cumulative probability of all models that are close, in Kullback-Leibler divergence distance, to the true data-generating process. We refer to this cumulative probability as the weight of the hypothesis. This leads to a natural notion of model simplicity: simple models are those with large weight and thus require fewer samples to generalize, while complex models have small weight and need more data. This perspective provides a rigorous and intuitive explanation for why over-parameterized models often avoid overfitting: the presence of simple hypotheses allows the posterior to concentrate on them when supported by the data. We further bridge theory and practice by recalling that stochastic gradient descent with Langevin dynamics samples from the correct posterior distribution, enabling our theoretical learner to be approximated using standard machine learning methods combined with ensemble learning. Our analysis yields non-uniform regret bounds and aligns with key practical concepts such as flat minima and model distillation. The results apply broadly across online, batch, and supervised learning settings, offering a unified and principled understanding of the generalization behavior of modern AI systems.

The inspiral, merger, and ringdown of Massive Black Hole Binaries (MBHBs) is one the main sources of Gravitational Waves (GWs) for the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), an ESA-led mission in the implementation phase. It is expected that LISA will detect these systems throughout the entire observable universe. Robust and efficient data analysis algorithms are necessary to detect and estimate physical parameters for these systems. In this work, we explore the application of Sequential Neural Likelihood, a simulation-based inference algorithm, to detect and characterize MBHB GW signals in synthetic LISA data. We describe in detail the different elements of the method, their performance and possible alternatives that can be used to enhance the performance. Instead of sampling from the conventional likelihood function, which requires a forward simulation for each evaluation, this method constructs a surrogate likelihood that is ultimately described by a neural network trained from a dataset of simulations of the MBHB signals and noise. One important advantage of this method is that, given that the likelihood is independent of the priors, we can iteratively train models that target specific observations in a fraction of the time and computational cost that other traditional and machine learning-based strategies would require. Because of the iterative nature of the method, we are able to train models to obtain qualitatively similar posteriors with less than 2\% of the simulator calls that Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods would require. We compare these posteriors with those obtained from Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and discuss the differences that appear, in particular in relation with the important role that data compression has in the modular implementation of the method that we present. We also discuss different strategies to improve the performance of the algorithms.

Relative positional embeddings (RPE) have received considerable attention since RPEs effectively model the relative distance among tokens and enable length extrapolation. We propose KERPLE, a framework that generalizes relative position embedding for extrapolation by kernelizing positional differences. We achieve this goal using conditionally positive definite (CPD) kernels, a class of functions known for generalizing distance metrics. To maintain the inner product interpretation of self-attention, we show that a CPD kernel can be transformed into a PD kernel by adding a constant offset. This offset is implicitly absorbed in the Softmax normalization during self-attention. The diversity of CPD kernels allows us to derive various RPEs that enable length extrapolation in a principled way. Experiments demonstrate that the logarithmic variant achieves excellent extrapolation performance on three large language modeling datasets. Our implementation and pretrained checkpoints are released at https://github.com/chijames/KERPLE.git.

Learning unnormalized statistical models (e.g., energy-based models) is computationally challenging due to the complexity of handling the partition function. To eschew this complexity, noise-contrastive estimation~(NCE) has been proposed by formulating the objective as the logistic loss of the real data and the artificial noise. However, as found in previous works, NCE may perform poorly in many tasks due to its flat loss landscape and slow convergence. In this paper, we study it a direct approach for optimizing the negative log-likelihood of unnormalized models from the perspective of compositional optimization. To tackle the partition function, a noise distribution is introduced such that the log partition function can be written as a compositional function whose inner function can be estimated with stochastic samples. Hence, the objective can be optimized by stochastic compositional optimization algorithms. Despite being a simple method, we demonstrate that it is more favorable than NCE by (1) establishing a fast convergence rate and quantifying its dependence on the noise distribution through the variance of stochastic estimators; (2) developing better results for one-dimensional Gaussian mean estimation by showing our objective has a much favorable loss landscape and hence our method enjoys faster convergence; (3) demonstrating better performance on multiple applications, including density estimation, out-of-distribution detection, and real image generation.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Many recent methods for unsupervised or self-supervised representation learning train feature extractors by maximizing an estimate of the mutual information (MI) between different views of the data. This comes with several immediate problems: For example, MI is notoriously hard to estimate, and using it as an objective for representation learning may lead to highly entangled representations due to its invariance under arbitrary invertible transformations. Nevertheless, these methods have been repeatedly shown to excel in practice. In this paper we argue, and provide empirical evidence, that the success of these methods cannot be attributed to the properties of MI alone, and that they strongly depend on the inductive bias in both the choice of feature extractor architectures and the parametrization of the employed MI estimators. Finally, we establish a connection to deep metric learning and argue that this interpretation may be a plausible explanation for the success of the recently introduced methods.

Existing studies on preference optimization (PO) have centered on constructing pairwise preference data following simple heuristics, such as maximizing the margin between preferred and dispreferred completions based on human (or AI) ranked scores. However, none of these heuristics has a full theoretical justification. In this work, we develop a novel PO framework that provides theoretical guidance to effectively sample dispreferred completions. To achieve this, we formulate PO as minimizing the negative log-likelihood (NLL) of a probability model and propose to estimate its normalization constant via a sampling strategy. As we will demonstrate, these estimative samples can act as dispreferred completions in PO. We then select contrastive divergence (CD) as the sampling strategy, and propose a novel MC-PO algorithm that applies the Monte Carlo (MC) kernel from CD to sample hard negatives w.r.t. the parameterized reward model. Finally, we propose the OnMC-PO algorithm, an extension of MC-PO to the online setting. On popular alignment benchmarks, MC-PO outperforms existing SOTA baselines, and OnMC-PO leads to further improvement.

The SIML (abbreviation of Separating Information Maximal Likelihood) method, has been introduced by N. Kunitomo and S. Sato and their collaborators to estimate the integrated volatility of high-frequency data that is assumed to be an It\^o process but with so-called microstructure noise. The SIML estimator turned out to share many properties with the estimator introduced by P. Malliavin and M.E. Mancino. The present paper establishes the consistency and the asymptotic normality under a general sampling scheme but without microstructure noise. Specifically, a fast convergence shown for Malliavin--Mancino estimator by E. Clement and A. Gloter is also established for the SIML estimator.

Categorical distributions are ubiquitous in machine learning, e.g., in classification, language models, and recommendation systems. However, when the number of possible outcomes is very large, using categorical distributions becomes computationally expensive, as the complexity scales linearly with the number of outcomes. To address this problem, we propose augment and reduce (A&R), a method to alleviate the computational complexity. A&R uses two ideas: latent variable augmentation and stochastic variational inference. It maximizes a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the data. Unlike existing methods which are specific to softmax, A&R is more general and is amenable to other categorical models, such as multinomial probit. On several large-scale classification problems, we show that A&R provides a tighter bound on the marginal likelihood and has better predictive performance than existing approaches.

Neural machine translation (NMT) systems typically employ maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoding to select the highest-scoring translation from the distribution mass. However, recent evidence highlights the inadequacy of MAP decoding, often resulting in low-quality or even pathological hypotheses -- the decoding objective is not aligned with real-world translation quality. This paper proposes calibrating hypothesis likelihoods with translation quality from a distribution view by directly optimizing their Pearson correlation -- thereby enhancing the effectiveness of translation decoding. With our method, translation on large language models (LLMs) improves substantially after limited training (2K instances per direction). This improvement is orthogonal to those achieved through supervised fine-tuning, leading to substantial gains across a broad range of metrics and human evaluations -- even when applied to top-performing translation-specialized LLMs fine-tuned on high-quality translation data, such as Tower, or when compared to recent preference optimization methods, like CPO. Moreover, the calibrated translation likelihood can directly serve as a strong proxy for translation quality, closely approximating or even surpassing some state-of-the-art translation quality estimation models, like CometKiwi. Lastly, our in-depth analysis demonstrates that calibration enhances the effectiveness of MAP decoding, thereby enabling greater efficiency in real-world deployment. The resulting state-of-the-art translation model, which covers 10 languages, along with the accompanying code and human evaluation data, has been released to the community: https://github.com/moore3930/calibrating-llm-mt.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

We study the task of agnostically learning halfspaces under the Gaussian distribution. Specifically, given labeled examples (x,y) from an unknown distribution on R^n times { pm 1}, whose marginal distribution on x is the standard Gaussian and the labels y can be arbitrary, the goal is to output a hypothesis with 0-1 loss OPT+epsilon, where OPT is the 0-1 loss of the best-fitting halfspace. We prove a near-optimal computational hardness result for this task, under the widely believed sub-exponential time hardness of the Learning with Errors (LWE) problem. Prior hardness results are either qualitatively suboptimal or apply to restricted families of algorithms. Our techniques extend to yield near-optimal lower bounds for related problems, including ReLU regression.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

We propose a new localized inference algorithm for answering marginalization queries in large graphical models with the correlation decay property. Given a query variable and a large graphical model, we define a much smaller model in a local region around the query variable in the target model so that the marginal distribution of the query variable can be accurately approximated. We introduce two approximation error bounds based on the Dobrushin's comparison theorem and apply our bounds to derive a greedy expansion algorithm that efficiently guides the selection of neighbor nodes for localized inference. We verify our theoretical bounds on various datasets and demonstrate that our localized inference algorithm can provide fast and accurate approximation for large graphical models.

As language models grow in popularity, it becomes increasingly important to clearly measure all possible markers of demographic identity in order to avoid perpetuating existing societal harms. Many datasets for measuring bias currently exist, but they are restricted in their coverage of demographic axes and are commonly used with preset bias tests that presuppose which types of biases models can exhibit. In this work, we present a new, more inclusive bias measurement dataset, HolisticBias, which includes nearly 600 descriptor terms across 13 different demographic axes. HolisticBias was assembled in a participatory process including experts and community members with lived experience of these terms. These descriptors combine with a set of bias measurement templates to produce over 450,000 unique sentence prompts, which we use to explore, identify, and reduce novel forms of bias in several generative models. We demonstrate that HolisticBias is effective at measuring previously undetectable biases in token likelihoods from language models, as well as in an offensiveness classifier. We will invite additions and amendments to the dataset, which we hope will serve as a basis for more easy-to-use and standardized methods for evaluating bias in NLP models.

The observations in many applications consist of counts of discrete events, such as photons hitting a detector, which cannot be effectively modeled using an additive bounded or Gaussian noise model, and instead require a Poisson noise model. As a result, accurate reconstruction of a spatially or temporally distributed phenomenon (f*) from Poisson data (y) cannot be effectively accomplished by minimizing a conventional penalized least-squares objective function. The problem addressed in this paper is the estimation of f* from y in an inverse problem setting, where (a) the number of unknowns may potentially be larger than the number of observations and (b) f* admits a sparse approximation. The optimization formulation considered in this paper uses a penalized negative Poisson log-likelihood objective function with nonnegativity constraints (since Poisson intensities are naturally nonnegative). In particular, the proposed approach incorporates key ideas of using separable quadratic approximations to the objective function at each iteration and penalization terms related to l1 norms of coefficient vectors, total variation seminorms, and partition-based multiscale estimation methods.

Masked language models (MLM) do not explicitly define a distribution over language, i.e., they are not language models per se. However, recent work has implicitly treated them as such for the purposes of generation and scoring. This paper studies methods for deriving explicit joint distributions from MLMs, focusing on distributions over two tokens, which makes it possible to calculate exact distributional properties. We find that an approach based on identifying joints whose conditionals are closest to those of the MLM works well and outperforms existing Markov random field-based approaches. We further find that this derived model's conditionals can even occasionally outperform the original MLM's conditionals.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

In this work we present a new method for the estimation of Mutual Information (MI) between random variables. Our approach is based on an original interpretation of the Girsanov theorem, which allows us to use score-based diffusion models to estimate the Kullback Leibler divergence between two densities as a difference between their score functions. As a by-product, our method also enables the estimation of the entropy of random variables. Armed with such building blocks, we present a general recipe to measure MI, which unfolds in two directions: one uses conditional diffusion process, whereas the other uses joint diffusion processes that allow simultaneous modelling of two random variables. Our results, which derive from a thorough experimental protocol over all the variants of our approach, indicate that our method is more accurate than the main alternatives from the literature, especially for challenging distributions. Furthermore, our methods pass MI self-consistency tests, including data processing and additivity under independence, which instead are a pain-point of existing methods.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

Machine learning systems are known to be sensitive to spurious correlations between biased features of the inputs (e.g., background, texture, and secondary objects) and the corresponding labels. These features and their correlations with the labels are known as "spurious" because they tend to change with shifts in real-world data distributions, which can negatively impact the model's generalization and robustness. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of this issue, along with a taxonomy of current state-of-the-art methods for addressing spurious correlations in machine learning models. Additionally, we summarize existing datasets, benchmarks, and metrics to aid future research. The paper concludes with a discussion of the recent advancements and future research challenges in this field, aiming to provide valuable insights for researchers in the related domains.

Learning from Label Proportions (LLP) is a learning problem where only aggregate level labels are available for groups of instances, called bags, during training, and the aim is to get the best performance at the instance-level on the test data. This setting arises in domains like advertising and medicine due to privacy considerations. We propose a novel algorithmic framework for this problem that iteratively performs two main steps. For the first step (Pseudo Labeling) in every iteration, we define a Gibbs distribution over binary instance labels that incorporates a) covariate information through the constraint that instances with similar covariates should have similar labels and b) the bag level aggregated label. We then use Belief Propagation (BP) to marginalize the Gibbs distribution to obtain pseudo labels. In the second step (Embedding Refinement), we use the pseudo labels to provide supervision for a learner that yields a better embedding. Further, we iterate on the two steps again by using the second step's embeddings as new covariates for the next iteration. In the final iteration, a classifier is trained using the pseudo labels. Our algorithm displays strong gains against several SOTA baselines (up to 15%) for the LLP Binary Classification problem on various dataset types - tabular and Image. We achieve these improvements with minimal computational overhead above standard supervised learning due to Belief Propagation, for large bag sizes, even for a million samples.