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arxiv:2603.05581

Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of AI-Driven Traffic Flow Patterns and Land Use Interaction: A GeoAI-Based Analysis of Multimodal Urban Mobility

Published on Mar 5

Abstract

A GeoAI Hybrid framework combining MGWR, RF, and ST-GCN models effectively captures complex traffic flow patterns and land use interactions across multiple mobility modes with superior predictive performance.

AI-generated summary

Urban traffic flow is governed by the complex, nonlinear interaction between land use configuration and spatiotemporally heterogeneous mobility demand. Conventional global regression and time-series models cannot simultaneously capture these multi-scale dynamics across multiple travel modes. This study proposes a GeoAI Hybrid analytical framework that sequentially integrates Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), Random Forest (RF), and Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (ST-GCN) to model the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of traffic flow patterns and their interaction with land use across three mobility modes: motor vehicle, public transit, and active transport. Applying the framework to an empirically calibrated dataset of 350 traffic analysis zones across six cities spanning two contrasting urban morphologies, four key findings emerge: (i) the GeoAI Hybrid achieves a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.119 and an R^2 of 0.891, outperforming all benchmarks by 23-62%; (ii) SHAP analysis identifies land use mix as the strongest predictor for motor vehicle flows and transit stop density as the strongest predictor for public transit; (iii) DBSCAN clustering identifies five functionally distinct urban traffic typologies with a silhouette score of 0.71, and GeoAI Hybrid residuals exhibit Moran's I=0.218 (p<0.001), a 72% reduction relative to OLS baselines; and (iv) cross-city transfer experiments reveal moderate within-cluster transferability (R^2>=0.78) and limited cross-cluster generalisability, underscoring the primacy of urban morphological context. The framework offers planners and transportation engineers an interpretable, scalable toolkit for evidence-based multimodal mobility management and land use policy design.

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This paper introduces a GeoAI Hybrid framework combining MGWR, Random Forest, and ST-GCN to model spatiotemporal heterogeneity of urban traffic flow across motor vehicle, public transit, and active transport modes. Applied to 350 traffic analysis zones across 6 cities (Turkish and Nordic clusters), the model achieves R2 = 0.891 and reduces residual spatial autocorrelation by 72% relative to OLS. SHAP analysis reveals land use mix as the dominant predictor for motor vehicle flows, while transit stop density leads for public transit. Cross-city transfer experiments establish practical morphology-conditioned deployment limits for GeoAI systems. Relevant to urban AI, geospatial ML, and sustainable mobility research communities.

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