The runner-up at 0.39 is the tell. A 0.6 pick reads decisive until you see the model was one sample away from a completely different sentence. The chosen-prob view collapses that fork into a single number; the full distribution is where the hesitation actually lives. We agree there.
Your cross-turn rung is the one I underweighted, and you're right. In a single generation the worst case is a bad sentence. Across turns, the bug is in the gap, the state you assumed propagated versus what actually did. The failure isn't in any frame, it's in the cut between two.
To your real question, does any layer never lie? My honest answer: no single layer is fully honest, but the disagreement between two adjacent layers is. A clean rendered string over an exploded distribution. A confident chosen-prob over a runner-up that's nearly tied. Carried state that doesn't match assumed state. Every bug I've actually caught lived in a mismatch between two representations, never in one read alone.
So I've stopped looking for the truthful layer and started diffing adjacent ones. The signal isn't in any rung of the ladder, it's in the rungs not agreeing. The lie is always at a seam.
That's literally how I caught a decoding setting gaming my own metric: coherence looked great, but the model's self-perplexity on its own output had jumped. Neither number was "the truth." The gap between them was.